Home in on Homa to win The Players
PONTE VEDRA BEACH, Fla. — I’m going to start out this predictions column with a not-so-bold one for this week’s Players Championship: The final-round leaderboard is going to be packed with a bunch of big-name players. There’s your sizzling hot take.
For years, we asked “what will the professional golf landscape look like once Tiger Woods isn’t playing?” While I still won’t write off Woods for when he does return (presumably at next month’s Masters), what was once one dominant presence within the game has morphed into a generation with 15-20 legit superstars, each of whom is capable of contending on any given week, as we’ve witnessed at the PGA Tour’s designated events.
Of course, that doesn’t mean a guy from somewhere below the uppermost echelon can’t beat ’em all. As we witnessed at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, on any given Sunday, a Kurt Kitayama can defeat a bunch of Scottie Schefflers and Rory McIlroys.
Before we get into the top pick for The Players, here are a few thoughts as we enter the biggest tourney of the year so far.
With seemingly all of the game’s best players showing some semblance of strong form, it can be a bit intimidating to stare at the entire odds board and make a few picks. OK, maybe that’s just a me problem. In any case, like in most decision-making, starting the process of elimination and whittling it down from there should be a weekly exercise, but that might be even more helpful for this one.
As you start your own research for the week, here’s one tip: Don’t fall in love with the data from last year’s edition of this event. That one lasted five days and included all four seasons, with more starts and stops than rush hour traffic. Look at the numbers, sure, but keep in mind how many different variables existed.
Don’t come at me with your fifth-major stuff. I’ve been writing about this topic for the past 20 years, and my opinion has never wavered. There are only four major championships, but being the best of the other ones certainly isn’t a bad thing. I love this event. I love what it represents. I love that the players treat it with reverence and importance. It’s just not a major, that’s all.
How weird is it going to be that the defending champion won’t be playing this week? In a word … very. One year ago, Cameron Smith was celebrated for outlasting both his fellow competitors and the weather. Now playing for LIV Golf, expect Smith’s absence to become a major subplot to the early-week headlines, especially since he still lives just a few minutes down the road.
Outright winner
Max Homa (20/1): When I first started researching and studying the board for this week’s event, Homa was the first name that struck me as a strong outright. I then veered, in order, to Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay, before finally landing on Homa once again.
All of which is to say that the toughest tournament of the year to predict won’t be any easier this week.
Back to Homa. He’s a guy I’ve felt was more feel-good story than impending superstar for too long and I’ll readily admit I was wrong. Sure, he’s great on social media and loves jumping on friends’ podcasts, but Homa has proven to be a stone-cold closer down the stretch, with a half-dozen wins to his credit.
Colt Knost, commentator for CBS Sports and SiriusXM, has played a lot of golf with Homa and believes he’ll be the No. 1-ranked player in the world before the end of 2024. Plenty of bettors have already played Homa for this year’s U.S. Open in his home state of California and for good reason. But TPC Sawgrass, where he finished T-13 last year, should be similarly perfect for his game. Fresh off a final round during which his iron play led the field at Bay Hill, but a cold putter led him to just an even-par 72, Homa should have the right form to get off to a hot start and stay there throughout the weekend.