Don’t count on these overrated high seeds
It’s like Christmas for college basketball fans with the start of the full field of the NCAA Tournament days away. Whether you bet on games or just fill out brackets, everyone wants to know which teams will make the Final Four.
While it’s important to know the teams to back, it’s also wise to find a few top seeds to avoid. If you can identify 2-3 teams that might be overvalued, it gives you an edge in your bracket pools.
Here are three teams I believe are overvalued and could be out of the tournament quicker than many are anticipating (odds via FanDuel).
Purdue Boilermakers
Seed: 1st in East. Odds to win championship: 12/1.
Purdue is a good team with the most dominant player in the country, Zach Edey. However, they are also the weakest top seed in the tournament. The problem with the Boilermakers is their guards can struggle against athletic defenses that pressure the ball. That weakness could rear its ugly head if Purdue meets Memphis in the second round.
Purdue does have a lot of quality wins on the season, beating Marquette, Duke and Gonzaga. Still, teams in the Big Ten don’t pressure the basketball and force turnovers regularly. When Rutgers and Penn State fell behind Purdue in the Big Ten Tournament and had to press, the Boilermakers had all kinds of issues with ball security. Penn State came from 17 back to almost win the game.
Purdue ranks 89th in turnover percentage, so on paper it doesn’t look like a weakness. However, that stat is misleading because of the way Big Ten teams play defense. Looking at the East Region, Memphis, Tennessee and Marquette all pressure the basketball and rank in the top 50 in forcing turnovers. I see that being Purdue’s undoing in the tournament and not reaching the Final Four.
Xavier Musketeers
Seed: 3rd in Midwest. Odds to win championship: 50/1.
Xavier reached the Big East title game but it was in the weaker half of the bracket and beat a fraudulent Creighton team to get there. The Musketeers had a great season but are the softest threeseed in the field.
I’ll say I thought coming into Selection Sunday that Kennesaw State was a lower-seeded team that could potentially pull a first-round upset. But let’s say seeding holds and Xavier advances. The rest of that lower bracket in the Midwest is a nightmare. Depending on who wins their matchups, Xavier will have to deal with such teams as Texas, Texas A&M, Penn State and Iowa State.
I just don’t see a Xavier team that ranks 70th in defensive efficiency coming out of there to reach the Elite Eight. An early exit is the more likely scenario. The Musketeers being 55/1 to win it all is way too low. They should be closer to 80/1.
Virginia Cavaliers
Seed: 4th in South. Odds to win championship: 65/1.
There’s very little I like about this Virginia squad. The Cavaliers just aren’t built to make a deep NCAA Tournament run. My No. 1 rule in the tournament is teams have to make shots. A lot of these games are tight and teams that go stretches without being able to score don’t last very long. Virginia ranks 74th in offensive efficiency and 140th in effective field goal percentage, according to KenPom. In case you aren’t familiar with those metrics, that’s not the recipe for a long run in March. The Cavaliers are also an awful offensive rebounding team and can get dominated on the boards. Virginia’s defense can still suffocate opponents at times but this team isn’t good enough offensively to win multiple games in the tournament. The furthest the Cavs can go is the Sweet 16 where Alabama will be waiting. If you are searching for a Final Four sleeper, look elsewhere.