Pick-pocketing Bobcats are steal against K-State

I circled this first-round clash between Kansas State and Montana State the moment the brackets were released on Sunday. And the further you dive into this matchup, the worse it looks for Friday’s big favorites.

The Wildcats were one of the most grossly over-seeded teams in the tournament, drawing a No. 3 seed despite ranking 25th in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin. This team was bolstered by numerous big wins in the Big 12, but it’s hard to ignore that .500 record over the final 16 games and a losing record away from home (7-8).

It’s also hard to ignore Kansas State’s glaring turnover problem, which only got worse as the campaign wore on. The Wildcats turned it over on 21.3 percent of possessions since Feb. 1, ranking 340th out of 363 teams, and they coughed it up 20 times in consecutive losses to close the year.

That’s a major concern ahead of Friday’s matchup with Montana State, which has forced turnovers at an elite rate (20.7 percent) since its current eight-game win streak began on Feb. 11. The Bobcats also lead the country in free-throw rate (62.3 percent) over that stretch — which doesn’t bode well for Kansas State’s aggressive but foul-happy defense.

It feels as if Montana State was built specifically to foil Kansas State’s Jerome Tang in his first tournament as a head coach. This one should be close to the end, and I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw an outright upset from the No. 14 seed here. THE PLAY: Montana State +8.5. C Jackson Cowart handicaps college basketball for Action Network.