Trump’s Rise Boosts Biden
Ex-President Donald Trump is rising in the polls for the 2024 GOP nomination, and fund-raising big-time, in the wake of Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg’s blatantly political indictment. That’s great news . . . for President Biden, and Democrats generally.
In the Real Clear Politics polling average, Biden scores at 42.1% favorable, 52.4% unfavorable: Republicans can clearly beat him in 2024. But probably not if they nominate Trump, who stands at 38.4% favorable, 55.8% unfavorable, for a net -17 points.
Even though Trump’s presidency was largely successful (with an asterisk on COVID), while Biden’s been an utter disaster.
The trend? Take the YouGov poll, where The Donald does better than in most: Its last several have his net favorability at -8 (4/8-11), -9 (3/26-28), -14 (3/19-21), -8 (3/11-14) and -15 (3/4-7); he was -12 back on Jan. 19-21.
In other words, even a nakedly political indictment by a Democratic county DA isn’t enough to put him in positive territory: Trump is just too established a figure to much change what people think of him. Pretty much any other Republican, meanwhile, has lots of upside available.
Yes, polls are far from everything; it’s months before even the first GOP debate, months more before Iowa and New Hampshire vote — and nearly 19 months before Election Day 2024. Biden’s term may prove even more disastrous by then; it’s not impossible that he could lose to Trump.
Yet even if Biden is in free-fall by next November, Trump still makes for a terrible nominee, because it’s all too easy for Democrats and their media allies to make the race a referendum on him, not on the incumbent’s misrule.
Sure, they’ll try the same with any GOP nominee — but Trump, uniquely, will play along: He still can’t stop talking about the “stolen” 2020 election and all his other grievances. His base eats that up, and many regular Republicans sympathize. But it’s utter poison to voters in the middle.
This isn’t about Trump’s policy agenda, by the way: No one’s going to win the GOP nomination without embracing it. After all, it worked — infinitely better than Biden’s has. No, it’s about swing voters. It’s beyond clear that the “middle” is entirely “gettable” for a Republican loyal to the Trump agenda, far more than it is for Trump himself.
It’s nothing personal, just the facts: The best bet for GOP victory in the 2024 election is to nominate someone other than Trump.
And the country can’t afford to give the Democrats another four years.