Play these win totals among Group of Five
Less than a week after Power Five win totals dropped, oddsmakers are back with win totals for the Group of Five. The biggest advantages in preseason futures often come from the lower-level FBS conferences.
Just like the Power Five, a shift has taken place in conference realignment at the G5 level. Conference USA now includes both Jacksonville State and Sam Houston from FCS, as UAB and Charlotte slide to the American.
The transfer portal has thrown conferences such as the AAC, Sun Belt and MAC in disarray, as players have moved on to national title-contending programs.
There are significant advantages for teams that return continuity in the coaching staff as well as the offensive line and quarterback. Teams that have shuffled out coaches for new schemes and green recruits are always in scope for an under.
Group of Five programs have the ability to flip the team around in a season with the right combination of coaches and players. Our goal is to identify those teams like Tulane and South Alabama well before Week 0.
Using our updated power ratings, a win total is created from a schedule of probabilities. Here are two Group of Five teams I played on open.
Memphis Over 7.5 (+110)
There are a number of variables that go into offseason power rating adjustments. One key element is Second Order Win Total, a Pythagorean look at what the true record of a football team should look like.
In the case of Memphis, a Pythagorean mark of +1.2 means plenty of games ended as close losses. A quick glance at the 2022 schedule shows just that, with three losses coming by a combined six points. The
Tigers also logged a touchdown loss to UCF despite outgaining the Knights.
Positive regression is certainly due for Ryan Silverfield’s squad when you include a 2021 schedule with four heartbreak losses.
Quarterback Seth Henigan returns for a third season, logging 47 touchdowns to just 16 interceptions so far.
Inside those numbers are a 9:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio in 162 pressured dropbacks last season.
A plethora of offensive linemen return to protect Henigan as well, but Memphis will have to replace both starting tackles. Getting a four-star tackle from Arkansas in the portal is a great start.
The schedule shows this win total is a push at a minimum. Memphis would be projected as a double-digit favorite in six games. Matchups against Missouri, Boise State and Tulane all fall within a touchdown, giving the Tigers a great chance to get over this opening number.
Boise State Under 9 (+105)
The biggest news for the Broncos is the change in play-callers, as Dirk Koetter came out of retirement to take on the offensive coordinator role last season. With Koetter re-retired, the coordinator duties fall onto Boise alum Bush Hamdan, who previously served as quarterbacks coach at Missouri. Hamdan served as offensive coordinator at Washington during Chris Petersen’s final two seasons. The coach prefers a pro-style quarterback and said after the spring game that a goal for Boise is to keep quarterback Taylen Green in the pocket.
Green tallied just 13 scrambles compared to 57 designed run plays, as Hamdan looks to take the risk of leaving the pocket out of the game plan. Although Green had a 14:6 TD-to-INT ratio, a poor 10:14 ratio exists when it comes to big-time throws versus turnover-worthy plays. If Hamdan’s experiment to keep Green grounded doesn’t pan out, the Broncos may take early losses to Washington and UCF. The division-less Mountain West conference schedule didn’t do Boise any favors, as it’ll play the projected top half of the league. The Broncos will host San Diego State and Fresno State, but trips to Wyoming and Air Force will decide the conference. With Washington scheduled in the opener, achieving 10 wins and losing this win total would require a near sweep after the season kicks off. Look for Mountain West teams to be slightly better than in 2022, as Boise State looks to install a less explosive offense.