Navy will sink any Irish hopes for rout
It’s Aug. 1. There will be real, competitive college football games this month.
We will be able to bet on those games. We are so back.
Let’s look at my favorite two CFB plays for Saturday, Aug. 26, which is right around the corner.
Navy +19.5 vs. Notre Dame
A big thing you should look for when betting early-season and/or non-conference college football is returning production. The team with more returning production and continuity will generally be a better bet in Weeks 0 through 4.
The Midshipmen return 78 percent of offensive line snaps and 84 percent of its rushing yards, a monster amount for a triple-option team.
Meanwhile, Notre Dame loses most of their best front-seven playmakers. Per Collin Wilson of The Action Network, “The Irish return less than 35 percent of pressures and stops (defined by PFF as a successful tackle in regard to position on the field). The top three creators of pressure — Isaiah Foskey, Jayson Ademilola and Justin Ademilola — have all moved on from South Bend.”
Navy should be a well-oiled triple-option machine, while Notre Dame’s run defense will likely still be a work in progress. That’s a death sentence for the Irish.
Navy wasn’t a great run defense last year, anyway, finishing 58th in Success Rate allowed and 103rd in Expected Points Added (EPA) per play allowed against the run. We shouldn’t expect them to be better.
On offense, Notre Dame has a new coordinator, Gerad Parker, and quarterback, Sam Hartman. Hartman is a really good quarterback and an upgrade over Drew Pyne, but it’ll take a few weeks for the pieces to fall into place.
Ultimately, this game projects as a lowscoring grinder that’s decided by two touchdowns or less. The Irish will figure it out on the fly while the Midshipmen string together uber-long, rush-heavy drives that eat up the clock and prevent the game from getting out of hand.
The Action Network’s Analytics team projects this spread at Notre Dame -14.7. The +19.5 available at BetMGM is a great bet.
Ohio +3.5 vs. San Diego State
The Bobcats are so lucky they recruited the Rourke brothers.
Nathan Rourke was unbelievable in his three years with the team, and his brother is following in his footsteps.
Kurtis Rourke returns for his fifth year in the system after throwing for 3,250 yards and 25 touchdowns with only four interceptions last season. He ranked third among Group of Five quarterbacks in Pro Football Focus’s passing grades.
Eight other offensive starters return alongside Rourke. Per SP+, the Bobcats return 78 percent of their offensive production, ranking top-20 nationally.
In Week 0, these ’Cats will take on San Diego State, which lost its top three tacklers and five starters overall. The Aztecs’ 40 percent defensive returning production mark is eighth-to-last among FBS schools.
SDSU brings back a few extra pieces on the offensive side of the ball, but will it matter? The Aztecs were a bottom-20 FBS offense last season, finishing 111th in Success Rate and 85th in EPA per play.
Ohio has its issues on the defensive side of the ball, but they should score at will on the West Coast in Week 0, and I don’t see the Aztecs keeping up on the scoreboard.
Yet, we’re catching points with Rourke. That’s a bet we have to make.