Gibbs should grab your attention
There’s no denying the talent of Jahmyr Gibbs. He’s a dual-threat back with an explosiveness few others possess. That’s why when he took the RB1 reins with David Montgomery out last week, Gibbs was expected to roll.
Even with a lion’s share of the snaps and touches, it wasn’t until the fourth quarter that Gibbs broke free for consecutive double-digit gains. His last five carries went for 38 yards (7.6 yards per carry), but his first 12 finished at 3.5. He was nonexistent in the passing game — two targets, 2 yards — despite his usage in Week 1.
I’m not certain Montgomery will return for “Thursday Night Football” when the Lions head to Green Bay for a divisional bout to take over first place in the NFC North. The Packers came back from a 17-0 deficit last week and are riding high with the expectation WR Christian Watson will also return.
Where Montgomery’s status affects Gibbs’ usage is in the ground game. Head coach Dan Campbell loves to deploy a two-back system where one is a bruiser, used for short-yardage and redzone situations, while the other is more finesse, set up for explosive plays and utilized in the passing game.
That’s what happened last year with Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift. Williams rushed for 1,000 yards and 17 touchdowns — just 73 receiving yards — while Swift hauled in nearly 50 receptions for 389 yards. The latter also dealt with injuries and as you can tell by his success in Philadelphia, was staunchly misused.
Each week, we’ve seen Gibbs’ receptions prop sit around 3.5. While Jared Goff has relied heavily on Amon-Ra St. Brown in the short game, I would call last week an anomaly. Any time you play the Falcons, games come at a different pace because of their run-heavy smashmouth approach. Only four total Lions were targeted, Gibbs being one of them.
If Montgomery returns, it should only help Gibbs’ receiving prop — because it’ll dip ever-so-slightly. Montgomery had just one target through two games while Gibbs racked up 11 alongside his backfield mate.
There remains a lot of unknown with this game and because of it, most of the props are not readily available. But, if you couldn’t tell already, I’m looking to target Gibbs in the receiving game.
Thursday sets up to be a back-andforth affair, unlike last week where Detroit jumped out to an early lead and never relinquished it. That changed the game plan, hence Goff’s limited usage of his receivers.
While Green Bay’s defense ranks 10th in total DVOA and has a PFF coverage grade of 81.5 (eighth), it does struggle against running backs in the passing game. The Packers rank 27th and allow nearly 50 receiving yards per game.
Take a look at the first three weeks. Roschon Johnson, Khalil Herbert and D’Onta Foreman combined for 11 receptions and 80 yards. The following week it was Bijan Robinson who went for 48 yards (four receptions) before Tony Jones finished Week 3 with four receptions for 21 yards.
That’s a lot of numbers I just threw at you. But there’s one consistency: Fourplus receptions per game to running backs. They have consistently found success and high usage against this Packers defense.
Montgomery likely will be limited even if he suits up. That’s why you should trust Gibbs to make an impact here. Play Gibbs’ receptions prop assuming it opens at 3.5 and depending on the number, consider his receiving yards Over, too.