Hectic stretch catching up with Jaguars
The “London” Jaguars returned to the States and despite an immediate AFC South bout with a revenge-driven Colts team, were never asleep at the wheel. We saw the Bills struggle upon their return, eking by the Giants on a last-second stop as time expired. But the Jaguars? They dominated the Colts, 37-20.
That’s three straight wins for the Jaguars who now have a short week and as brutal a travel spot as any. Tack on Trevor Lawrence’s injury — he does expect to play despite a knee injury keeping him limited at practice — and I believe Jacksonville is overvalued in this “Thursday Night Football” matchup with the Saints (-1).
Two weeks in London, a flight to Jacksonville and then a quick turnaround and short week to New Orleans. While that may sound like fun and a neverending vacation, it’s a lot to ask of anyone. It takes a toll on your body, no matter how you look at it.
Included in that span was an emotional sweep over their AFC South rival Colts and a win against a conference brute in the Bills. This is a “sleepy spot” for the Jaguars, who play a struggling Saints team that has lost three of its last four.
It’s an easy spot to overlook New Orleans. Aside from a win against the lowly Patriots, this team has really struggled. Derek Carr suffered a shoulder injury against the Packers a month ago — he’s been playing through an AC sprain — and the offense has lagged behind because of it.
This game has all the makings of turning ugly fast. While Carr does look like his shoulder is progressing the right way, the Saints have put up more than 20 points just once all season. The reason New Orleans is 3-3 and not worse has been defensive play. The Saints are sixth in PFF’s rankings and top 10 in DVOA.
Could the Lawrence injury be a smoke screen? Definitely. Conflicting reports surfaced early in the week on whether Lawrence would play or not. I would imagine Lawrence suits up at less than 100 percent and these “progressed really well” comments from the quarterback are just a way to not bring more attention to the injury.
He was limited in practice on Tuesday while C.J. Beathard took the majority of first-team reps.
It’s clear there’s an issue with Lawrence’s knee. Despite the 37 points on Sunday, the final score was a bit misleading due to timely turnovers and great field positioning. Lawrence struggled mightily — 51.6 QBR, 0 EPA per play — as Indy turned it over six times.
There are ways to keep Lawrence safe — like starting out of shotgun entirely — but losing his ability to scramble should not be overstated. Though they suffered different injuries, we saw how much limited mobility hurt Joe Burrow earlier this season. Not being able to move around, scramble or throw on the run is a huge loss against an aggressive New Orleans defense.
This is the perfect buy spot on the Saints. Four of their last five games have come on the road and with Carr gradually healing, New Orleans gets to return to the Superdome against a hobbled Lawrence.
It’s a brutal travel spot for the Jaguars and despite a three-game winning streak, they enter as slight underdogs on Thursday night — for a reason. Back New Orleans to jump above .500 behind dominant defense.