Pickin' Pickens to top yardage prop
The name of the game is buy low, sell high. Throughout the NFL season, there are plenty of opportunities in any given matchup where value presents itself.
On Thursday night, when the Steelers welcome the Titans to Acrisure Stadium, one of those “value” players will be George Pickens. This is a smash matchup for the second-year wide receiver. Last week against the Jaguars, QB Kenny Pickett suffered a rib injury and didn’t return. Pickens finished the game with five targets, but just one catch — a 22-yard touchdown.
But against the Titans, fresh off of trading safety Kevin Byard, Pickens has a great matchup. The Steelers officially are calling Pickett a game-time decision, but the quarterback said he is “playing for sure,” which is good news for Pickens because there’s an evident connection between the two.
The Titans rank second in rush DVOA and have shut down opposing running backs week after week. But where they’re weakest is defending the passing game. Not only are they 25th in DVOA against the pass, but they’re last against No. 1 wide receivers.
Here’s a quick list of some of the receivers who have had big games against Tennessee this season: Chris Olave (112 yards), Keenan Allen (111), Mike Williams (83), Amari Cooper (116), Ja’Marr Chase (73), Josh Downs (97) and even Drake London (55) despite a run-heavy Atlanta approach (London also left with an injury in the third quarter).
Pickens has proven big-play ability and thrives in one-on-one coverage. In fact, when Pickett sees one-on-one, he’s often targeted his young receiver. In four of seven games this season, Pickens has caught a pass for 30-plus yards and has eclipsed the century mark three times.
And in games where he was held under 40 receiving yards, he averaged five receptions on nine targets, 117 yards and a touchdown per game.
Pickens truly is a rare talent in the NFL, and after a one-reception game, coach Mike Tomlin emphasized the importance of getting the ball into the hands of his WR1 more often.
Among wide receivers with 20-plus targets, Pickens ranks sixth in average yards after the catch, ahead of Chase and Cooper Kupp, among others. His aDOT (average depth of target) of 14.7 is top 10, too.
Based on his current prop number of 52.5, Pickens needs to haul in about four receptions given his aDOT. That doesn’t even count his ability to rip a big play on a deep ball, either. He has hauled in fourplus receptions in five of seven games.
With Pickett’s likely return for Thursday night’s game, along with the Titans’ ability to shut down the run, we could see Pickett forced into plenty of passing-down situations. The Steelers are 27th in PFF’s rush grade.
Pittsburgh also enters as 2.5-point favorites at home against rookie quarterback Will Levis, who should have his own issues with this vaunted Steelers front seven.
Get the ball to Pickens and big things happen. In the Steelers’ four victories this season, the receiver averages 110 yards per game.
Given Pickens’ and his team’s success when he is involved in the offensive game plan, I would also consider some alt lines for the star receiver. His receiving yards props of 75 and 100 sit at +230 and +600, respectively.
At the end of the day, this 52.5 number is just way too low. Back Pickens to rebound from a down week and explode against a soft Titans secondary.