Primary Shift
Why Nikki Haley’s Koch endorsement matters
AMERICANS for Prosperity Action, a super PAC that’s part of the powerful Koch political network, announced Tuesday it’s backing Nikki Haley for president.
It’s big news: The network billionaire brothers Charles and David Koch founded had raised more than $70 million for political spending by this summer — after sitting out the last two presidential contests.
“Haley is in the best position to defeat Donald Trump in the primaries,” AFP senior adviser Emily Seidel argued in the endorsement memo. And, Seidel continued, “our internal polling consistently shows that Nikki Haley is by far the strongest candidate Republicans could put up against Joe Biden in a general election — winning every key battleground state and up nationally by nearly 10 points.”
Unsurprisingly, the fiercely freemarket group touted Haley’s “bold and robust strategy to tackle inflation” and commitment to “addressing the out-of-control government spending” as its substantive reasons for supporting her.
The effect of its decision will be significant, though not decisive.
Calling itself “the largest grassroots operation in the country,” AFP Action alone pledges to “put thousands” of “activists and grassroots leaders into the field” and “launch extensive mail, digital, and connected television campaigns to supplement those onthe-ground efforts.”
“While we don’t agree with anyone on every issue, Nikki Haley, by far, offers the best opportunity to improve the lives of all Americans,” asserted Seidel. This acknowledgment of differences may or may not refer to the candidate’s foreign-policy views, given AFP Action’s focus on domestic issues.
But there is, in fact, a cavernous gulf between the expansive position for America on the world stage Haley favors and the reduced role the broader Koch network prefers.
Haley has distinguished herself among Republicans by advocating her Reaganite worldview as a tide of isolationism is rising within the GOP — at the encouragement of the Kochs. (David died in 2019.) A 2020 Politico report noted patriarch Charles Koch was “handing out $10 million in new grants to promote voices of military restraint at American think tanks.” Koch even joined forces with progressive megadonor George Soros in 2019 to establish the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, an organization with a mission diametrically opposed to Haley’s vision for the United States.
Indeed, while the Quincy Institute has called on the Biden administration to “overcome the hawks to forge a new U.S.-China relationship” and pushed for cease-fires in Ukraine and Israel, Haley has said she views China “as an enemy” and wholeheartedly backs the continued support of the Ukrainian and Israeli war efforts.
“If we do this right in Ukraine and Israel, we won’t have to deal with China,” submitted Haley in a Fox News interview this month.
What does it say that the Koch network is supporting someone so out-of-step with its own outlook on such momentous issues?
Haley’s free-market bona fides surely played a role, but the other major contender in the primary, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, is no slouch in this area and hews much closer to the Koch view of foreign policy.
The answer, then, is AFP Action and its backers — who are putting millions on the line— have determined Haley is much better suited than DeSantis to take on Trump.
It’s a conclusion that’s not without merit. For months now, Haley has been climbing in the polls on the back of several strong debate performances.
After starting the race seemingly as an afterthought, Haley has climbed into second place in New Hampshire and South Carolina, according to the RealClearPolitics polling averages.
DeSantis remains in second place in Iowa, but Haley is gaining on him there, too.
All this is indicative not just of some amorphous “momentum” but a proven ability to move voters into her column that inspires confidence in both the candidate and her campaign.
It appeared DeSantis was poised to overtake Trump earlier this year, but he’s seen his polling numbers decline precipitously over the course of 2023. Some of that is not his fault: Trump has attacked him ceaselessly online, on the campaign trail and on the airwaves, but the fact remains his campaign has erred in some notable cases.
His case for being the most formidable challenger to Trump’s hold on the nomination has taken a hit but remains somewhat compelling. He’s the second choice of a strong plurality of Trump supporters and better positioned to peel them away from the former president — something the last candidate standing must do to defeat him.
Still, it’s significant Koch strategists are betting heavily on Haley despite having invested so much in an ideology irreconcilable with hers. That the pacifist Koch network just endorsed the field’s most hawkish candidate shows there’s been a serious shift in thinking among the donor and strategist class.