HEALTHY DOSE OF SKEPTICISM
Yanks rotation can be dominant — or easily derailed by injuries
LET ME transport you to a time when the Yankees were horrible. When the best free agents used the organization to bid up their prices with no intention of joining such a losing Zoo.
The years focused upon are 1990-91. The 1990 Yankees had the organization’s worst winning percentage since 1913 (the first year as the Yankees after being the Highlanders). Between 1990-91, they had the second-worst winning percentage in MLB. They were so bad in 1991, for example, that they drafted sixth overall in 1992 and took a kid named Jeter — the last time they have had a selection in the top 12.
I was The Post’s Yankees beat writer back then, and when a team is bad you tend to develop baseball’s version of Stockholm syndrome, trying to squint through the logic to see the best-case scenario of what the organization is selling.
So going into the 1990 season, I did a story in which then pitching coach Billy Connors gushed about having four starters who had double-digit wins sometime within the previous two seasons and what it would mean if they pitched to that form in unison. That would be Andy Hawkins, Dave LaPoint, Tim Leary and Pascual Perez.
That went so well that Mark Connor was the pitching coach in spring 1991 when he looked optimistically at four starters who had won double-digit games within the previous three seasons — Hawkins, Leary, Scott Sanderson and Mike Witt.
That were those Yankees — they had to overpay second- (and third-) tier free-agent pitchers like Hawkins, LaPoint, Leary and Perez to come to The Bronx — and then George Steinbrenner would be furious that they did not pitch up to the overspent money (albeit, for part of this when he was supposedly suspended for life). It also was still an age in which starters were judged by win totals.
Those times have resonated with me recently because you can Joel Sherman make a case for the 2024 Yankees having among the majors’ best rotations, as long as you play just a bit of the retroactive game. These Yankees have what those Yankees never had — a dominant ace in Gerrit Cole. And also three recent All-Stars — Marcus Stroman for what he did in the first half of last season, and Nestor Cortes and Carlos Rodón from 2022.
I can hear Billy Connors or Mark Connor — or Conor McGregor or Jimmy Connors — talking about if they just get the best of the recent past … That job in 2024 will fall to Matt Blake and Yankee optimism that they get the healthy upsides of these guys. If they do, the Yanks probably have a top-five rotation.
But what is the chance of that? Ten percent? Twenty? Fifty?
As recently as 2022, Cortes, Rodón and Stroman combined for 84 starts, a 2.92 ERA, a .206 batting average against and 11.9 Fangraphs Wins Above Replacement. And also spent just a combined 52 days on the IL, with 13 of those due to illnesses as opposed to an injured body part.
But what if they repeat last season when that trio combined for 53 games (51 starts), a 4.90 ERA, a .240 batting average against and 3.4 WAR? And also spent a combined 275 days on the IL. Consider that Rodón was on the IL to begin last season with a forearm strain and hurt his back — while on the IL — then later in the season strained a hamstring to go back on the IL. Stroman was on the IL with hip inflammation and fractured rib cartilage while rehabbing. Cortes had a rotator cuff strain, missed two months, returned to make one start, then missed the rest of season with that rotator cuff strain.
The health is more vital because so much of the Yankees’ starting pitching depth has been stripped away over the last few years, notably this offseason when Michael King, Drew Thorpe, Randy Vasquez and Jhony Brito were key to acquiring Juan Soto from San Diego.
On “The Show with Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman” podcast, Aaron Boone cited a restocking of rotation depth, accentuating the signing of Cody Poteet in particular, but also Luke Weaver, plus the approaching prospects Clayton Beeter, Chase Hampton and Will Warren.
But the more the Yankees dip into that group the more problematic, as witnessed last season. The Yankees finished fourth in starter ERA and sixth in innings pitched in 2022, and then 18th and 19th last year despite Cole winning the AL Cy Young and throwing nine more innings than any other AL pitcher.
As opposed to Cortes and Rodón, who were both health and on-field disasters in 2023, Stroman was a lot closer to Cole through July 15 (pre-injury) than to coal. He was fifth in innings (118 2/₃) behind Logan Webb, Zac Gallen, Sandy Alcantara and Aaron Nola. Cole had 117 innings. Among the 85 pitchers with at least 75 innings at that point, Stroman was tied for fourth with Kodai Senga in batting average against (.203) behind Shohei
Ohtani, Blake Snell and Tyler Wells. Cole was at 2.25. Stroman’s 2.88 ERA was 12th, just behind Cole at 2.85.
Again, you can look at Stroman and see a worthy sidekick to Cole. The same with Cortes or Rodón, whose talents are overt. Or you can see problems that again lead to Clarke Schmidt somehow being the second-most reliable starter with the high-upside replacement, King, now in San Diego.
At this time of year, I try not to surrender to baseball Stockholm syndrome by remembering that you can’t spell Connor or Connors without a con.