Three 'dogs who can bite in the EPL
It may be a long fortnight for football bettors who have to wait until Feb. 11 for Super Bowl LVIII, but the good news is that there is plenty of, uh, football (the soccer kind) to bet on over the next week.
The English Premier League returns in full this week with 10 matches across Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Here are some underdogs worth keeping an eye on across the pond. All odds via FanDuel sportsbook.
Nottingham Forest (+650) vs. Arsenal, Tuesday
It’s been a decent start to life under new manager Nuno Espirito Santo for Nottingham Forest. The Tricky Trees have won two and lost two under the former Wolverhampton head coach, but the underlying numbers have been encouraging as Forest boasts a +0.5 expected goal difference over the fourmatch span. And it’s not as if it had an easy schedule, either. Forest lost to redhot Bournemouth and the always-dangerous Brentford, while defeating Newcastle handily and nicking a win against Manchester United.
Arsenal has been one of the best teams in the Premier League this season, but the Gunners have looked pretty uninspiring of late, going 2-1-3 (W-D-L) over their past six matches.
What’s most concerning is that Arsenal’s world-beating defense has hit a stumbling block and that puts a lot of pressure on an attack that just isn’t built to run up the score.
It’s not a bet that’s likely to win, but these odds are simply too wide.
Everton (+195) at Fulham, Tuesday
It has not been dull at Everton Football Club this season. The Toffees started the season by getting just one point from their first five matches and then snapped into form quickly at the end of September and rode the wave up until the holidays. In the middle of all of that Everton was slapped with a 10-point deduction for breaching Financial Fair Play and just a week ago it was reported the club is facing more sanctions.
But the story here is that Everton has played like a solid mid-table club for most of the season. Some matches have been better than others, but that’s to be expected from teams in this tier. Fulham is also in that tier and the market seems a little bit high on the Cottagers against a team that boasts a stronger statistical portfolio.
Everton lacks depth thanks to its financial foibles and could be dealing with some fatigue issues, but striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin is healthy and his presence can’t be understated in a match that could end up coming down to which team finishes off the few chances it creates.
Chelsea (+450) at Liverpool, Wednesday
Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp shocked the sporting world over the weekend by announcing he would step away from the club at the end of the season. And that sentiment — that Liverpool will want to win this one desperately for their walkaway coach — has seeped into the betting market.
Chelsea has struggled for consistency in front of goal this season, but its statistical profile remains quite strong and always makes it a viable candidate at these kinds of prices. The Blues are the second-best team in the Premier League (behind Liverpool) at creating big scoring chances and rank fourth in expected goal difference per 90 minutes.
These two teams played a hard-fought draw in Matchweek 1 and I wouldn’t be shocked if we see something similar on Wednesday afternoon.