Orioles rate slight edge over Yanks in Al East
Hearken back to mid-July of last year when the entire AL East held a better record than the Indians, the AL Central leader at the time.
The Orioles would seize the division lead from the Rays at that same point in the season and never relinquish it.
It was a season of reckoning for the O’s, who hadn’t won the division in nine years. Their fresh talent was met with disappointment when it was swept by the eventual World Series-champion Rangers in the ALDS.
This is a club that has been built patiently through the draft. Through years of serving as the AL East doormat, it was creating a core that has potential to become the next juggernaut of the big leagues.
Adley Rutschman emerged as the star catcher of the new generation with eyepopping hitting power. Gunnar Henderson validated his place as the No. 1 overall prospect by winning AL Rookie of the Year. Ryan Mountcastle had a coming-out party at the plate, posting a top-12 percentile xSLG in baseball.
This was supported by the year’s most effective closer in Felix Bautista, who was the No. 1-overall pitcher with a 2.08 xERA before getting shut down right arm surgery — a loss that will extend through the 2024 season.
So who do you sign as a closing pitcher when it’s time to get serious? Craig Kimbrel, who comes to Baltimore as a 35-year-old following two playoff runs with the Dodgers and Phillies. He remains one of the game’s most prolific closers, sustaining a quality of contact rate in the top 15 percentile last season.
Kyle Bradish, who was the best AL starting pitcher in second-half ERA, will begin the season on the injury list with a UCL sprain. Alas, Corbin Burnes comes to town as a bona fide ace after getting acquired from Milwaukee, which gives the O’s rotation a significant boost.
While Baltimore is just settling in, the Rays are reaching a tipping point with a cost-efficient core that has carried them in recent seasons but is still surrounded with uncertainty. Tyler Glasnow is gone, and there is the rain cloud of Wander Franco’s situation.
The Rays continue to play moneyball by supplementing holes with cheaper, unproven talent. Meanwhile, there is going to be ample pressure on the tinkered pitching rotation along with having no catching depth. There’s only so long this game can go on.
The Blue Jays look to run it back with established stars such as Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Co. They leaped for Shohei Ohtani, but did nothing to make upgrades to the staff when they fell short.
It’s going to take replications from Chris Bassitt and Jordan Romano in tandem with several offensive step-ups to stay in the mix.
As for the Red Sox, Craig Breslow just unboxed his things, and it won’t take overnight to clean up the utter mess that Chaim Bloom left behind.
The Yankees made the biggest splash by landing Juan Soto to energize what was a volatile offense. It’s the Brian Cashman moves like these that inflate the Bombers on the market.
The outfield finally appears intact from a defensive perspective, but we’ll see more of Aaron Judge in center field. He’ll once again need to carry the weight of posting the best contact numbers in baseball while the pricey pieces around him live up to their big-city salaries.
The Yankees sit as +145 favorites at BetMGM to win the AL East, but I’m leaning toward the wholesome outlook of the Orioles at +200.