JORDAN APPEAL
Why signing Monty can make sense in ’24 without ruining long-term plan
PORT ST. LUCIE — I understand the Mets’ current plan. I agree with trying to win now but not at the expense of clogging future payroll or rosters. However, I also think signing Jordan Montgomery can coexist with that plan.
In fact, I would argue that signing Montgomery can enhance that plan.
Now, there are two items that I cannot fully know and that Scott Boras, Montgomery’s representative, did not help me with during a phone conversation Tuesday:
1. Is Montgomery willing to play for the Mets?
2. Is his price falling? Boras represents the four best free agents who had remained available into spring training. One, Cody Bellinger, blinked and signed a three-year, $80 million pact to return to the Cubs. That is far less than Boras-Bellinger were seeking in total. So, in exchange Bellinger received the ability to opt out after both the 2024 and 2025 seasons to potentially pursue long-term big dollars again.
Is this a harbinger of what Boras is willing to do with his other main free-agent clients — Montgomery, Matt Chapman and Blake Snell? Again, he would not reveal his strategy. But it seems far more likely that Snell will go the Bellinger multi-opt-out/short-term-deal route than Montgomery.
It is believed Montgomery wanted to be compared financially to Aaron Nola (seven years, $172 million) while the industry was more thinking Eduardo Rodriguez (four years, $80 million). The Mets are definitely monitoring whether Montgomery’s ask falls — $150 million, $140 million, $130 million … but there is probably a number before the Mets’ comfort level that another team steps in — such as the Red Sox or Giants, who are still strongly considering Snell.
David Stearns would not discuss Montgomery specifically. Instead, he said he’d explore “opportunistic” scenarios, stated he does not believe Kodai Senga (shoulder) has a long-term injury and expressed faith in the Mets’ rotation depth/alternatives.
I respect that Stearns is trying to impose discipline and patience for a franchise that has had too little. That Steve Cohen, despite his wealth, is not going to just throw money at a problem to make outside noise stop. But I do think the Mets should stretch to, say, five years at $115 million with an opt-out after three years and see if any club beats that. Here is why:
1. Since the Mets are prioritizing the big picture, let’s begin there. If Sean Manaea has even a good year, he will opt out of his contract, thus joining Luis Severino, Jose Quintana and Adrian Houser in free agency. So the Mets are going to be looking for at least two starters next offseason, maybe more if youngsters do not step up.
In my scenario, the Mets would be paying Montgomery a $23 million annual average, which would mean an additional $25.3 million in luxury-tax penalty. The Mets could argue that for that total outlay of nearly $50 million they will find good solutions next offseason, when their tax burden also might be lessened with dead money coming off for Max Scherzer and perhaps Justin Verlander, too.
It is easy to spend other people’s money, and Cohen, after the faulty investments of 2023, can justifiably suggest sticking with a more measured plan. But …
2. The Mets are not punting on 2024 and insist the goal is to make the playoffs. But I think they have a tough 1,450-ish inning pitching path this year. Even if Senga returns by early May, the Mets will be offering a rotation that hardly promises big innings combined with a bullpen currently filled by relievers with no options. It is a marriage that threatens a lot of burnout and churn.
Stearns showed in Milwaukee he can build strong pens as a season progresses.
But Montgomery (ninth-most starts from 2020-23) can be a stabilizer to lessen the burden. There are no certainties with pitching, but Montgomery is durable, plus New York- and playoff-tested. Carlos Mendoza, the Yankees’ former bench coach, effusively lauded Montgomery for his tenacity and how good a teammate he is. Yes, he costs more now, but he comes with so much less doubt for this environment than just about any starter who will be available next offseason — and how much would you pay for that?
A healthy Senga/Montgomery combo would be a cornerstone to try to make the playoffs this year and to build around going forward. And one more item with Montgomery: He could not be made the qualifying offer, so there is no draft pick compensation tied to him; another element that does not disrupt the Mets’ bigpicture plans.
3. Stearns is dedicated to learning about his young pitching and does not want to block chances. But even with Montgomery there are going to be 50 or more starts for Tylor Megill, David Peterson, Jose Butto and, eventually, Dominic Hamel, Christian Scott and Mike Vasil.
And though the Mets like their pitching group (especially Scott), the rest of the industry is more tempered. Some like Scott’s upside or that of Blade Tidwell. But mainly the feeling is these are backend types. That has value but will not prevent a go-for-it Mets team beginning next offseason from bulking up at the top of the rotation.
Montgomery might not be a No. 1 or 2, but he is a high-end No. 3 with little question about makeup and none about pitching in New York or October. I suspect if his price does fall, another team will beat the Mets to all of these qualities. But the Mets should seriously consider being a bit uncomfortable financially now to solve a today and tomorrow issue.