Less mayhem when patrols rise
Cop effect on crime in subway
The recent surge in subway violence came in the months after the number of cops underground plummeted to levels not seen in years, according to data reviewed by The Post.
The analysis also shows crime fell by as much as 8% during past upticks in police patrols on the subways.
The examination of policing power in the subways comes as the NYPD has again boosted its presence in the system by 1,000 officers per day following three homicides underground in the span of a month.
It marked the worst outbreak of violence in the system since October 2022, when the last surge in subway policing was launched.
That boost, announced by Gov. Hochul and Mayor Adams after three homicides in a month and nine murders for that year — plus a spate of headline-grabbing hate crimes mostly targeting Asian Americans — kicked in nearly instantly.
The flood of cops into the system began to bend the crime rate downward by December 2022, which saw 2.23 major felonies per million riders, compared to 2.25 the month prior, the data say.
But by October of the following year, subway police patrols had dipped to levels unseen since the de Blasio administration, and the crime rate climbed to 2.32, The Post’s review shows.
The analysis examined the number of patrols reported in the system each month between November 2021 and December 2023, and then compared it to the subway’s ridership and number of index crimes, or major felonies, reported. It’s among the first times that policing manpower in the subways has been directly compared against ridership and crime on a monthly basis.
The two years of data suggest there is a tight correlation between the number of patrols underground and the crime rate, which incorporates the monthly ridership and compares it to the
number of offenses:
∎ Following months with fewer than 100,000 patrols, the crime rate came in at 2.25 per million riders.
∎ Following months with 100,000-124,999 patrols, the crime rate came in at 2.15 per million riders.
∎ Following months with 125,000-plus patrols, the crime rate came in at 2.06 per million riders.
That means on average, months that followed those with 125,000 patrols or more underground saw 8.4% less crime than those with fewer than 100,000 patrols.
The NYPD data show that the bulk of the extra shifts were made by police officers usually assigned to duties above ground, many likely on overtime, which police sources warned is not a sustainable strategy.
“While the immediate results may be promising, the long-term feasibility falters under the weight [of] over reliance on police officers who are already stretched and at excessive costs,” the official said.