Get it on Australian Rules fun & games
The football season is over here in the United States, but it’s just about to get started Down Under. The Australian Football League kicks off next week and for the next six months 18 teams will duke it out with the hopes of lifting the Premiership Cup in late September.
For the uninitiated, AFL (aka Aussie Rules) blends bits of rugby, soccer and NFL, but with the chaos of hockey. It’s a wonderful, fast-moving and physical sport which wins fans over quickly with pulsating pace and chaos. Matches air on FS1 and FS2 throughout the season and take place in the wee hours of the morning, making it a spectacle worth checking out for early-rising punters.
If you’ve always been intrigued by Aussie Rules but haven’t made the plunge, one way to dip your toe in the water and begin to learn the ropes is to invest (responsibly) in a futures bet. That will give you a team to root for and reason to watch the games. Here are a couple of candidates worth a sprinkle to win the flag:
Melbourne Demons (+850)
After winning its first flag since 1964 in 2021, it looked as if Melbourne had the pillars in place to become a dynasty. Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver looked to be one of the best 1-2 punches in the league, captain Max Gawn was a six-time All-Australian in the prime of his career and Simon Goodwin was one of the brightest coaches in the AFL.
Things haven’t panned out for Melbourne since winning the Premiership three years ago, but a lot of that has come down to bitter fortune in the playoffs and some poor injury luck. Because of that, the betting market seems to be downplaying Melbourne’s chances to fight its way back to the top of the mountain. Oddsmakers have the Demons ranked around fifth, but most ELO models make them one of the favorites. There’s some post-hype value on Melbourne.
Adelaide Crows (14/1)
It happened on the other side of the world so it didn’t make waves in the States, but Adelaide was the victim of one of the most egregious officiating mistakes of all time in 2023 and it cost the Crows a chance to make the playoffs.
The decision (which was akin to a referee and then video review ruling that a kicker missed a field goal that clearly went in) was part of a host of bad breaks that went against the plucky Crows all season. According to Pythagorean wins, Adelaide “should” have won 14 games in 2023 and made the playoffs. Instead, it missed the cut with an 11-12 record despite having the fourth-best points differential.
The Crows should continue their ascent in 2024 and it would be surprising if they’re not half this price come September.
Gold Coast Suns (35/1)
The story of the Gold Coast Suns is not all that unfamiliar in any sport. An expansion team put in a growing market, the Suns were supposed to bring footy fever into an area of the country that historically hasn’t embraced Aussie Rules. But the team’s lack of success — they’ve never made the playoffs (or finished above 12th place) — and poor management has halted any chance of progress.
There is legitimate reason for hope this year, however. The Suns have one of the most exciting cores in the AFL and they made a huge splash by hiring Damien Hardwick to be their head coach (the equivalent of Andy Reid leaving the Chiefs for, say, the Panthers). If things click, the sky is the limit for the Suns.