SHOCK THE VOTE
Michigan’s high-profile ‘uncommitted’ campaign revealed Israel’s strengths — and Biden’s weakness
FOR months, President Biden and his advisers have alleged that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is captive to the “ultra-conservative” ministers in his coalition government, and out of step with mainstream Israeli public opinion. Even worse, they accuse Netanyahu of unnecessarily prolonging the war to avoid elections.
According to this line, mainstream Israelis are with Biden. If it weren’t for the hardliners in his government, Netanyahu would be suing for a hostage deal at any price; agreeing with Biden that the terror-laced Palestinian Authority should take over Gaza after the war; joining Biden’s push for Palestinian statehood; and accepting a cease-fire that won’t bring all the hostages home or destroy Hamas militarily or politically.
But as a Direct Polls survey of Israeli public opinion from Feb. 13 showed, Biden’s claim of prolonging the Israeli offensive is a gross mischaracterization of the nation’s public opinion. The Netanyahu government set three goals for the war: Eradicating Hamas as a military force and as a regime; releasing all of the hostages; and preventing Gaza from posing a threat to Israel in the future. The survey showed that upwards of three quarters of Israelis support all of these goals.
Some 92% of Israelis oppose allowing Hamas to continue to exist in Gaza after the war; 84% oppose agreeing to end the war in exchange for the unreasonable hostage deal now on the table; 74% oppose Palestinian statehood. And 73% of Israelis support an Israeli ground offensive to seize control over the southern border town of Rafah, even if it causes an open confrontation with the Biden administration.
While the White House accuses Netanyahu of prolonging the war to avoid elections, Direct Polls found that Netanyahu has nothing to fear from them. In head-to-head matchups, Netanyahu leads the competition. If elections were held today, Netanyahu’s right-religious bloc would win. With Israelis united behind Netanyahu against Biden, whose interests is Biden trying to secure by advancing policies the vast majority of Israelis consider dangerous?
Since Oct. 7, the US media have warned that strong support for Israel is liable to cost Biden the state of Michigan, where Muslim Americans comprise a critical voting bloc for Democrats. Around a month and a half ago, Michigan Rep. Rashida Tlaib, who rejects Israel’s right to exist and supports Hamas, launched a campaign that fed on those warnings. Tlaib called on Muslim and progressive voters in Michigan to vote “Uncommitted” rather than vote for Biden in the Michigan primaries, which took place on Tuesday. The idea was to send Biden a clear message: Support Israel and lose Michigan. Lose Michigan, and Donald Trump will return to the White House.
Despite receiving saturation coverage, Tlaib’s campaign bombed. Biden won the Michigan primary with 81.1% of the vote. “Uncommitted” came away with a measly 13.2%.
Michigan voters routinely vote “Uncommitted,” even when popular candidates run in the primary. For instance, in 2012, when then-President Barack Obama was running unopposed for re-election, “Uncommitted” won 11% of the vote. Seen in the context of Michigan primary voting patterns, Tlaib and her supporters barely moved the needle.
A new Harvard-Harris poll of US opinion published the day of the primary explained their failure. Tlaib and her voters are marginal players. Americans support Israel against Hamas 82% to 18%. They support all of Israel’s war aims 2:1.
Some 67% of Americans believe there should only be a cease-fire after all the hostages are released and after Hamas is removed from power; 63% support Israel’s plan to seize Rafah; and 78% believe that Hamas should be removed from power. Conversely, only 28% of Americans think that the Palestinian Authority should replace Hamas, while 68% of Americans say Israel is trying to avoid civilian casualties in Gaza.
Not only do Americans support Israel, they support Netanyahu. Whereas Biden has a net -11% approval rating, Netanyahu’s net approval rating is +2%. (Rashida Tlaib has a -18% net approval rating.) Unsurprisingly, only 38% of Americans support Biden’s handling of the war in Gaza.
The two polls show that Biden and his advisers have things backwards. Netanyahu is not a captive of his “ultra-conservative” coalition. In pursuing victory over Hamas, Netanyahu represents mainstream public opinion in Israel and in the United States.
As for Biden, he’s the one who’s captive to Tlaib and the 18% of Americans who join her in supporting Hamas murderers against Israel.