Choose wisely
Cruz could sail on rough fantasy waters this year
REMEMBER those Choose Your Own Adventure novels? Doesn’t building a fantasy roster feel like you’re reading one of them?
Every decision you make affects your journey, and no matter what adventure you choose, something always pops up to try and throw you off course — injuries, cold streaks, age catching up with veterans, prospects not living up to the hype.
Your adventure begins with the draft, and every decision matters.
One of the most polarizing and exciting names available is Elly De La Cruz. In 98 games last season, the Reds shortstop hit 13 home runs, drove in 44 runs and scored 67. He also stole 35 bases, which was ninth-best in the majors (and he had more than 200 fewer plate appearances than everyone above him, outside of Esteury Ruiz). Those numbers, in addition to an improving Reds lineup, leave fantasy managers with a big decision to make in drafts (assuming you’re not in a dynasty league where he’s already rostered or in a keeper league where round values are given to players) because his stock is soaring.
Your voyage begins here. Choose your adventure:
1. Draft De La Cruz at his current 29.58 average draft position, according to Fantasy Alarm, based on 98 big league games.
2. Pass on De La Cruz’s tantalizing skills and build a balanced roster with more established players.
3. Go into the haunted house and try to contact the spirit of Old Man Rutherford.
Knowing De La Cruz’s potential, your first instinct may be to jump at adventure No. 1. That’s fair, but let’s look at what the 2023 season really told us about the 22-year-old to help you make your decision. In his first 30 games, De La Cruz hit .325 with four homers, 16 RBIs, 28 runs, 16 stolen bases and a .887 OPS. In that stretch, he led the majors in stolen bases and was tied for the league lead in runs scored. He had the 11thhighest average and 18th-best OPS. He also had the thirdhighest strikeout rate, the seventh-worst walk percentage, the fifth-lowest hard-hit rate and the highest ground ball rate.
After the All-Star break, fantasy managers were forced into a whole new adventure (not all bad, but definitely not all great). De La Cruz hit .191 with nine homers, 28 RBIs, 39 runs, 19 stolen bases and .627 OPS in the second half. He also struck out 105 times in 292 plate appearances (36 percent). He had the secondworst strikeout rate, the thirdlowest batting average, the fifthlowest OBP, the sixth-lowest OPS and the 13th-highest ground ball rate after the break. Though it’s hard to ignore the exciting numbers (stolen bases, runs scored and homers), it’s impossible to ignore De La Cruz’s other numbers. You know, like the .235 batting average or the 33.7 percent strikeout rate or the 53.9 percent groundball rate. Sure, he had the thirdhighest maximum exit velocity, but his launch angle and barrel rate weren’t ranked anywhere near the top.
How about his .184 batting average versus southpaws or his .199 average at home? Did you know he hit .238 in July and .198 in August? Yeah, he stole 12 bases in the final month of the season, but he also hit .202 with just five extra-base hits in that span, too.
Can he make enough adjustments to turn any of those numbers around? If not, you’re looking at a long season.
This is why selecting De La Cruz as a top-30 player is a massive gamble. Don’t get me wrong, his ceiling is enormous — he has all the tools to be the league-winner fantasy managers dream of having on their team. On the other hand, he also has the tools (mainly a shovel) to bury your team because his floor feels like a potential bottomless pit. That’s a scary adventure to choose, especially when there are other, more established options. You might think this is Roto Rage opting for the “safer” adventure, because Roto Rage is adverse to taking risks. That is wildly incorrect. This is Roto Rage choosing the “smarter” adventure because immense talent based on a small sample size isn’t enough to win a fantasy title.
Choose your adventure wisely, my friends.