Back Yordan, Bryce at nice MVP prices
Oddsmakers are counting on big things from the Bronx Bombers’ tandem of Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, as the pair are priced first and second in the 2024 AL MVP futures market at every regulated bookmaker.
However, there are a bevy of logical winners waiting behind that pair, which should make this year’s AL MVP race more compelling than in 2023 when Shohei Ohtani had all but won by the time July arrived. (All odds via FanDuel).
American League
Judge (+550) will benefit significantly from having Soto, another MVP-caliber hitter, to insulate himself. He’s only one season removed from an historic 62-home run campaign and still put up a 1.019 OPS in 458 plate appearances in 2023.
If Judge gets 600 plate appearances, look out. However, we might not be able to count on that since he supposedly will have to monitor last season’s toe injury for the rest of his career.
Soto (+600), meanwhile, will look to benefit from the short porch at Yankee Stadium. In seven career games there, he has hit four homers and owns a 1.219 OPS. However, per Baseballsavant, Soto hit just two balls last season with the Padres that would’ve been home runs at Yankee Stadium.
I wouldn’t talk anybody off of bets for Judge or Soto. At their short prices, though, I don’t quite have the conviction because I think there are simply too many legitimate candidates to steal the award this year.
One of those is Yordan Alvarez, who is my favorite bet on the board at 11/1.
The Yankees’ offense should be considerably better, but if it isn’t, Judge and Soto are at a disadvantage compared to batters on full-blown offensive powerhouses. The Astros are projected to lead the AL by FanGraphs with 5.05 runs per game.
There are some flaws with Alvarez’s chances in this market. He will need to stay healthy, and for him, that is more of a question mark than many others. He might also mainly be used as a designated hitter, and no true DH has ever won the AL MVP.
I’ll look past those concerns to bet the best hitter in baseball hitting in the middle of a stacked lineup.
Alvarez had a .583 slugging percentage last season, which underperformed his .626 expected rate. He has lowered his strikeouts in each full season of his career and continues to become more of a nightmare to pitch to.
That was evident in the postseason last year, as he tortured the Twins and Rangers with a 1.487 OPS and six homers across 11 games.
It makes sense to back Alvarez in batting-specific markets like most RBIs as well, but at 11/1 there is value in backing him to win the MVP.
National League
The top of the NL MVP odds board — Ronald Acuña Jr. (+500), Mookie Betts (+650), Freddie Freeman (+900), Shohei Ohtani (+950), Matt Olson (12/1) — makes a clear case for the absurdity of the Braves’ and Dodgers’ lineups, as the two teams combine for six of the top-15 shortest prices. Acuña is a worthy favorite but is already dealing with knee soreness in spring training. He could potentially see Freeman and Austin Riley (25/1) steal some votes as well. And with Ohtani not accruing value as a pitcher this season, I don’t see much upside there. Bryce Harper played 126 games last season and just 99 in 2022, but that gives us a buy-low opportunity on a two-time NL MVP at 12/1.
Harper returned faster than expected last season and most likely wasn’t playing at full health, which could have contributed to his slow start. Led by a monster second half, he still slashed .293/.401/.499 across 126 games and accrued 3.7 WAR.
The Phillies are projected to be either the thirdor fourth-most productive team in the NL. A full season of in-form Trea Turner would likely work in Harper’s favor. Citizens Bank Park also quietly ranks in the top 10 in Park Factors over the last three seasons. Harper’s WAR projects slightly lower at first base compared to when he was in the outfield, but the transition should help him stay in the lineup.