No need to wait for Big Dance
It’s the best time of the year. Mid-major conference tournaments are already underway, and we’ve seen everything from buzzer-beaters to double overtimes and beyond. Most teams are fighting to punch their ticket to the Big Dance, which is just a week away.
Keeping that in mind, let’s look at the Power 5 conferences and break down some futures to bet, with their tournaments starting Tuesday or Wednesday.
Colorado to win the Pac-12
The odds are not out yet while seeding is still figured out in the middle of the Pac-12, but there is one team I’m keying on to make a run and cut down the nets in Las Vegas.
Already securing a bye through the first round, it gives even more time for Cody Williams to heal up and return to full health for a final push. Because of seeding, Colorado wouldn’t have to face Arizona until the championship, a huge plus as well.
The Buffaloes sit on the NCAA bubble, giving them a huge motivational edge. When fully healthy, I truly believe this is the second-best team in the conference and one that can give Arizona some fits despite what previous history might suggest.
Colorado is as well-balanced an offense as any. This team does not shoot the 3 at a high rate, but it is extremely effective (40 percent, fifth in NCAA) when doing so. The Buffs love to attack downhill, using their physicality and strength around the rim to finish.
KJ Simpson runs this offense and is among the most impactful players in college basketball. He leads the team in scoring (19.8), assists (4.8) and steals (1.8), and is shooting nearly 45 percent from 3.
The Buffs rank 12th in the country in average height with Simpson (6-foot-2) being their smallest player. Rarely will you see a lineup where there aren’t three players at 6-8 or taller. That is a big reason behind Colorado’s downhill aggressive approach, ability to draw fouls at a high rate and command of the offensive glass.
Since Feb. 17, Colorado has ranked as the 22nd-best team in the country, per Bart Torvik. Tad Boyle’s squad has an elite offense that has been able to cover up some defensive issues — primarily inside the paint.
But push comes to shove, I side with talent in March, and Colorado is undoubtedly a Top 25 team when fully healthy. If Williams returns to full health, take the Buffaloes to cut down the Pac-12 nets.
Florida to win the SEC
A team I believe is underrated entering the NCAA Tournament is Florida. Since the start of February, the Gators are the 17th-best team in the country, per Torvik.
The offense had initially struggled to flow with so many transfers coming into Todd Golden’s system, but the Gators have finally smoothed things out. In that same span, Torvik has Florida as the No. 14 offense.
The moneymakers for Florida are its elite interior size and offensive rebounding. The Gators grab nearly 40 percent of all chances — thanks in large part to their trio of big men: Tyrese Samuel, Micah Handlogten and Alex Condon.
This is a team that slightly underperformed its talent ceiling, but a lot of that comes with roster turnover — especially early. But as things smoothed, we saw how dominant the Gators can be. They have taken down Auburn and Alabama as well as picked up a road win at Kentucky.
Florida is experienced and is clicking at the right time. Don’t be surprised if this team makes it to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament and beyond.