Juicy Burger
Marlins slugger a tasty option for fantasy squads
IF YOU’RE not in the mood for a hamburger after reading this, you might be a vegan — even though this has about as much to do with food as a colonoscopy. Now you know what I’ve been craving since making Jake Burger the topic for this week’s column (the burger, not the colonoscopy).
Burger started the 2023 season with the White Sox, the team that made him a firstround choice in 2017. Though he broke out with his power numbers, blasting 25 homers and driving in 52 runs in his first 88 games, his .214 average and 102 strikeouts in 323 plate appearances looked more like an impression of Adam Dunn. During that span, he had the sixth-highest strikeout rate and the fifth-worst on-base percentage among players with a minimum of 300 plate appearances.
In August, however, Burger was surprisingly traded (he’s controllable for another five years) to Miami, and that’s where his season really got interesting. In 53 games with the Marlins, he raised his average from .214 to .250 after hitting .303 with nine homers, 28 RBIs, 27 runs and a .850 OPS.
Yes, there was a noticeable decrease in his power production. He went from hitting a dinger in 7.7 percent of his at-bats to just 4.2 percent. Sure, the new ballpark could have been a factor — Guaranteed Rate Field is a homer haven for righties, loanDepot park not so much — but there’s more to it than just the venue.
Burger slashed his strikeout rate from 31.6 with the White Sox to 21.7 percent with the Marlins (which actually started in his final month in Chicago when he reduced his strikeout rate by more than 5 percent). His contact rate increased by nearly 4 percent, and his zone contact rate went up almost 5 percent. His line drive rate improved by almost 6 percent, and his flyball rate dropped by almost 8 percent. Does this mean Burger is now a contact hitter and his power is gone? Not at all, his power is legit. According to Statcast, Burger ranked in the top 1 percent of the league (seventh overall) in maximum exit velocity (118.2 mph). His 91.9 mph average exit velocity ranked 25th, and his hard-hit rate (49.6 percent) was 24th. His barrels per plate appearance percentage (10.7) ranked seventh, and his flyball/ line drive exit velocity (97.8 mph) was sixth. Do not doubt his power!
You should, however, doubt his .303 average after the trade. His .354 BABIP indicates luck was on his side, so it’s more likely he will hit closer to the .250 mark he finished the season with (he’s a career .251 hitter).
There’s more to love about Burger. He has a great chance to be Miami’s cleanup hitter (or, at the very least, hit in the middle of the order), which should provide plenty of RBI opportunities. He hit .282 with four homers and 10 RBIs when hitting third last year, .320 when hitting fourth and .275 with 11 homers, 27 RBIs and a .942 OPS when hitting fifth.
Perhaps the best thing about Burger is his 161.88 average draft position, according to Fantasy Alarm. He is being drafted about 90 spots below Alex Bregman (77.25) — who hit .262 with 25 homers, 98 RBIs, 103 runs and a .804 OPS — and more than 70 slots below Nolan Arenado (89.33) — who hit .266 with 26 homers, 93 RBIs, 71 runs and a .774 OPS.
Over 141 games last year, Burger hit .250 with 34 homers, 80 RBIs, 71 runs and a .806 OPS. If you miss out on top third basemen, — like Jose Ramirez, Austin Riley, Rafael Devers, Gunnar Henderson or Royce Lewis — there’s no reason to settle for players like Bregman or Arenado when you can have similar production from a player seven or eight rounds later. Tasty Burger! Sorry, meant to
say: Target Burger!