Devils’ issues make Over the play versus Blueshirts

Monday night features a couple of crucial games for the local hockey teams. The Devils — who desperately need to string a bunch of wins together just to get back into the playoff race — will visit the Rangers, while the Islanders will wrap up their California swing with a trip to Los Angeles to take on the Kings.

Let’s take a look at both contests and see where the betting value stands.

Devils at Rangers

I think it’s an oversimplification to say New Jersey’s nightmare campaign comes down to just poor goaltending, but it’s certainly the main reason that the Devils have taken such a large step back in 2023-24. New Jersey ranks 31st in the NHL in save percentage and 27th in goals against average. The three main goaltenders the Devils have used this season (Vitek Vanecek, Akira Schmid and Nico Daws) have combined for -18 Goals Saved Above Expected (per MoneyPuck). No team can escape that kind of performance from its goaltenders for an entire season.

But it’s not just the goalies that have caused the Devils issues. Injuries on the blue line have forced rookies Luke Hughes and Simon Nemec into bigger roles than they’re ready for, while solid middlepair rearguards like John Marino and Jonas Siegenthaler have had to play tougher minutes than you’d like, too.

Time has likely run out on the Devils to make a playoff push, especially with the team dealing Tyler Toffoli at the deadline, but they did at least attempt to stabilize their goaltending by making a change. Jake Allen and Kaapo Kahkonen are likely just stopgaps before a bigger move in the offseason, but they’ll both get a chance to make an impact before the season ends.

Kahkonen, who has decent underlying metrics despite playing for the lowly Sharks, is the likely starter for the Devils on Monday night.

You’d expect the Devils to sell out a bit defensively in order to give their netminder a fighting chance, but that just isn’t in their

DNA. New Jersey plays a high-event, fast-paced game and that leaves them susceptible to defensive breakdowns and giving up chances off the rush.

The Rangers don’t have anything to worry about in the goaltending department, but they are due for some negative regression. The Blueshirts are conceding 3.13 expected goals per 60 minutes at fiveon-five since the All-Star break (31st in the NHL), but they’re only allowing 1.72 goals per 60 in that span. Those numbers should meet in the middle at some point.

There’s value on the Over in this contest.

Recommendation: Over 6.5 goals

Islanders at Kings

The Islanders played Anaheim on Sunday night, so this is a bit of a tricky schedule spot, but the good news is that the Isles will have No. 1 goaltender Ilya Sorokin between the pipes after Semyon Varlamov played in Anaheim. Sorokin’s form has always been strong this season, but he’s really found a groove since Patrick Roy took over. It doesn’t take a scientist to figure out why. Before Roy took over, the Islanders were abject in their own end. The Islanders were among the worst teams in the NHL at preventing shots on goal and quality scoring chances through the first half of the campaign. No goalie would impress under that kind of barrage. Under Roy, the Islanders rank among the best teams in the NHL at preventing scoring chances at five-on-five and Sorokin’s numbers have improved alongside. Both of these teams are playing a strong defensive brand of hockey at the moment and that should put a premium on space and scoring chances in Hollywood on Monday night. That makes the under seem like a solid bet, but I’d rather take a shot on a bigger price and back this game to go into overtime. The Islanders have played more overtime games this season than any team other than the Boston Bruins, while the Kings have gone past regulation in two of their last three contests. Barring a dud from either side, it’s hard to see this tilt getting out of hand and that should keep the overtime angle in play throughout the game. Recommendation: Sixty-minute draw (+330 or better).

Michael Leboff handicaps the NHL for Action Network.