DANCE CONTEST
With at-large spots shrinking fast, 5 teams with most interesting cases
CHAMPIONSHIP Week is here. That means one overwhelming storyline: Bubble teams jockeying for position, hoping they have enough on their respective résumés to reach the NCAA Tournament.
Of everything to watch over the next week, who’s in and who’s out will be the most talked-about topic by a wide margin. Bracketologists will provide frequent updates. Fans will flock to NCAA.com to see the updated NET rankings every morning. The teams will root for as few bid-stealers as possible — meaning schools that wouldn’t ordinarily reach the dance winning their conference tournaments to receive the automatic bid.
All projections at the moment include the regularseason champions from the AAC (South Florida) and Atlantic 10 (Richmond), but neither of them are in the mix for an at-large berth. Florida Atlantic (AAC) and Dayton (A-10) winning their respective conference tournaments would free up two extra spots.
With that in mind, here are the five most interesting bubble teams to watch.
Indiana State
Indiana State lost in the Missouri Valley Tournament championship game to Drake on Sunday and immediately debate began over social media. Detractors pointed to the Sycamores owning only a combined five Quad 1 and 2 wins of their 28 victories, a 1-4 record in Quad 1 games, the dreaded Quad 4 loss and not having a single win over an at-large. Supporters listed their strong metrics, highlighted by a NET ranking of 26 that won’t fall much after the loss to Drake — no team has ever been left out of the tournament with a top-30 NET — and the idea that Indiana State doesn’t get nearly the amount of opportunities that high-major schools receive for significant wins. It’s an argument that has been had for years: The midmajor with tons of wins, albeit against inferior competition, or the middleof-the-road power-conference school? It’s going to be a stressful week for the Sycamores.
St. John’s
A few weeks ago, the Johnnies weren’t even being considered. They had lost eight of 10 games to fall three games under .500 in the Big East. A five-game winning streak to close out the regular season changed that. St. John’s is currently in the “last four in” in most projections. But it probably needs to win its Big East Tournament quarterfinal against Seton Hall to feel safe. Rick Pitino’s team has just one win over a consensus at-large team (Creighton) and a 3-9 record in Quad 1 wins after Villanova and Utah dropped in the NET rankings over the weekend, which are concerns.
It is a solid 7-8 away from home, which is something the selection committee looks at, and its NET of 38 is decent enough. One of Villanova/ Utah becoming a fourth Quad 1 win would certainly help. Ultimately, though, it’s hard to see the fifth-place team that reaches the tournament semifinals in a strong Big East being left out.
Wins over tournament teams North Carolina, Texas Tech, Creighton and Seton Hall, and the first three were either neutral or on the road. Losses to St. Joseph’s, Butler, Drexel and Penn. Just a bizarre résumé. The Wildcats’ 14 losses will be a hindrance — only three teams with 15 losses (2019 Florida, 2018 Alabama, 2017 Vanderbilt) have ever earned an at-large bid — but they can lean on a NET of 32, and their 10-11 Quad 1 and 2 mark is certainly passable. Similar to St. John’s, they most likely need to reach the Big East Tournament semifinals. This is a team that, when on, can beat anybody. It obviously can lose to anyone as well.
TCU Villanova
Are the two high-level wins, at Baylor and over Houston, enough? Will the Horned Frogs’ 4-10 Quad 1 record and 357th-ranked non-conference strength of schedule preclude them? Just one subQuad 1 loss is a strength, and a NET ranking of 39 is solid. There are some similarities to Rutgers, a tournament snub last year, with TCU.
The Scarlet Knights had quality metrics and four Quad 1 wins, but were punished for not scheduling well enough. One major difference: TCU has avoided the bad losses that did in Rutgers last March, which may do it.
Virginia
The old eye test would not be kind to the offensively challenged Cavaliers. They have failed to reach 50 points six times, are ranked 189th in offensive efficiency and own only two wins over the at-large field (Florida and Clemson). Virginia’s NET is a pedestrian 51, but it does not have a sub-Quad 2 loss. Winning a game in the ACC Tournament, against the ClemsonBoston College/Miami winner, is probably enough to reach the First Four in Dayton. Otherwise, they’ll be sweating in Charlottesville.