Call you bookies 'bout the rookies
The be-all-end-all of handicapping baseball’s rookie of the year awards is attempting to project a player’s likelihood of spending the majority of the season on a major league roster, trying to evaluate reasons why they could end up as an everyday player. Or not.
Is he blocked out by established bigleaguers? Is an organization situated to manipulate service time? How would a team tolerate a player qualifying for Super Two? After that, you have to consider how a player would accumulate WAR in that expected playing time.
With so many things to consider, keep in mind that you can always circle back on rookies you are high on but do not believe will start the season in the majors, at what will be better prices down the road.
American League
Evan Carter (+280, Bet365) is the odds-on favorite at every sportsbook. He still qualifies as a rookie despite playing 40 combined regular-season and playoff games for the Rangers last season. He had an OPS of 1.058 in 75 regular-season plate appearances, and a .917 OPS in 72 regular-season PAs. He is the safest bet for playing time and a worthy favorite.
Jackson Holliday (+400) is my favorite current price on the board. Yes, his path to consistent playing time is a little convoluted for a price this short. However, baseball’s top prospect is projected to lead AL rookies in WAR per plate appearance. This spring, he has looked more competent defensively while slugging .607.
It continues to seem more likely that Holliday will make Baltimore’s Opening Day roster. The Orioles surely would hate to rush their most important prospect, but they are also in win-now mode. It seems likely, too, that Holliday is the team’s best candidate at second base, while he also could get steady usage at
his natural position of shortstop.
Texas’ Wyatt Langford is appropriately priced at +600, and I don’t quite see betting value at that number. He has mashed across 200 minor-league appearances (10 homers, .360/.480/.677) and has slugged .808 across 32 PAs this spring. He has progressed at an absurd rate since being drafted fourth overall in 2023 but would need to be an outlier to come in and succeed at the big-league level this year.
Junior Caminero is appealing at 12/1 given his upside at third base and at the plate. It sounds unlikely he will crack Tampa Bay’s Opening Day roster though.
National League
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (+150) is one of the bigger favorites in recent history to take home NL ROY honors. The Dodgers didn’t pay $325 million to not exclusively feature the 25-year-old Japanese pitcher in their starting rotation. He projects to generate 4.3 WAR, and is even the fourth betting favorite for the NL Cy Young.
He has pitched to an ERA of 9.00 in two spring appearances for the Dodgers. That likely means nothing, but I would certainly continue to monitor his form ahead of the season.
The Giants seem to be trending in the right direction as a team, which could help projected leadoff man Jung Hoo Lee (+700) generate counting stats. He is essentially a lock to be San Francisco’s everyday center fielder, which is a huge plus in this race. Lee signed a six-year, $113 million contract after hitting .340/ .407/.491 during his KBO career. He has an .OPS of 1.008 over a small sample of 21 PAs this spring. At his odds, he is worth betting.
Milwaukee’s Jackson Chourio (10/1) is the lone non-import priced among the NL favorites, but I’m not sold on his upside relative to the proven professionals he is competing against, all who have guaranteed roles.