Will can take Players after wilting at Arnie
If you watched this past weekend’s telecasts of the Arnold Palmer Invitational, you undoubtedly noticed the inround promos touting the upcoming Players Championship as “the best field in golf.”
This is a characterization long employed in regard to the PGA Tour’s flagship event, one which will continue to be used throughout this week’s 50th anniversary celebration.
There’s just one little problem: It isn’t true anymore.
Some of the star power which previously heightened discussions of this tournament’s fifth major status — either as an official designation or unofficial — remains far away from Ponte Vedra Beach headquarters this week, essentially invalidating the aforementioned claim about the field.
The four major championships will include the likes of Jon Rahm, Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson and Cameron Smith, creating a noticeably stronger entry list than The Players or any other event that will be played this year.
The identity of The Players remains a Catch-22 wrapped in a conundrum masquerading as a certitude. The PGA Tour very obviously doesn’t want to issue exemptions to LIV Golf regulars, but its promotion of this event as the best field will continue to ring hollow without them.
None of which is to suggest the PGA Tour should’ve acquiesced to qualified LIV players and allowed them into the field, but it’s impossible to argue that this resistance hasn’t massively impacted the overall quality of this tournament.
For years, I’ve maintained that this tournament is the year’s toughest to prognosticate. Over the past two decades, we’ve witnessed winners in the form of long hitters, short hitters, exemplary iron players, sublime putters, old guys, young guys, superstars and rookies.
The mark of a great host course is one that doesn’t lend itself to the success of just one specific type of player, and TPC Sawgrass checks every box available.
I’ll still give a little more of a nod toward those who are the best secondshot golfers, which is reflected in my selections for this week.
Outright winner
Short odds: Will Zalatoris (25/1) — My best advice for this week might be to hope Scottie Scheffler posts something close to an even-par opening round and his pre-tournament odds of +600 move to a more palatable number, so we can snatch him up in the live markets. I can’t in good conscience, though, recommend him at that opening price, so instead I’ll pivot to a player who at one point on the weekend at the Arnold Palmer Invitational appeared to be cruising to a title.
If you turned off the television on Saturday afternoon when Zalatoris held a five-stroke advantage and figured it was over, welcome to the wild world of professional golf, where even an elite talent like Willy Z. can go from 60 to 0 in a matter of minutes, slamming on the brakes and ultimately finishing in a share of fourth place, eight shots behind the winner.
Even so, his game looks verrrry close to winning soon, and whether that happens this week, four weeks from now at the Masters, or at a tournament like the U.S. Open, it might have as much to do with how Scheffler plays as it does Zalatoris. It’s asking a lot based on what we just witnessed, but a head-to-head win over the No. 1-ranked player just might be enough to beat everyone else,
too. Long odds: Billy Horschel
(100/1) — When we start delving into triple-digit odds for a long-shot outright selection, we’re not seeking a player who should play well in a given tournament, but one who could triumph if he plays his best golf. In other terms, we’re reaching for a ceiling, not a floor.
As I started perusing the board at 100/1 and beyond, there were plenty of players who should play well at TPC Sawgrass — guys who own a recent run of results or some correlating statistics. I’ll admit there are others in this range who make for more appealing top-20/40 plays or DFS picks than Horschel, but there are few who offer that swing-for-the-fences upside that he does.