Best ways to get in on Rangers & Isles
The Rangers and Islanders both have big opportunities awaiting them on Thursday night.
While the Isles will look to continue their push for a playoff spot with a result in Buffalo against the ascending Sabres, the Rangers head to Tampa Bay to try to nab their fourth win in a row as they try to keep some distance between themselves and the Hurricanes atop the Metropolitan Division.
Let’s dive into both matchups and see if we can find some betting value.
Rangers at Lightning
The Rangers continue to roll through the second half of the season. They have won three games in a row and are 14-2-1 with a plus-27 goal difference in their last 17 games. Astonishingly, the Rangers have only allowed 32 goals in that span and most of the credit goes to their goaltenders, Igor Shesterkin and Jonathan Quick, who have a combined .940 save percentage during this hot streak.
The Rangers deserve plenty of credit for running through February and early March, but there are still some concerning signs at five-on-five.
Nonetheless, the Rangers keep winning and that shouldn’t surprise anybody. This has been the Blueshirts’ MO for the last three seasons. The Rangers have terrific special teams, elite playmakers and an all-world goaltender. They don’t need to tilt the ice to win. They just need to convert their chances and have their opponents miss theirs. That’s usually what happens.
In a lot of ways, the Lightning are like a poor man’s version of the Rangers this season. The Bolts are not great at five-on-five, but they make up for it thanks to a league-leading power play, an elite core led by Nikita Kucherov and a goalie they will bet on every game in Andrei Vasilevskiy.
The big difference in this matchup is that the Rangers have depth up front and on the blue line, while Tampa Bay is extremely top-heavy.
The betting market has been skeptical of both of these teams all season and you can easily see why, but this is the kind of matchup that suits the Rangers. They’re just a better version of the Lightning right now and should be favorites in this matchup, even on the road.
Islanders at Sabres
These teams have morphed into very different versions of themselves.
Most people expected the Sabres, who were one of the most high-event teams in the NHL last season, to continue to push the pace and lean into their offensive talents in 2023-24, but the opposite has happened. Buffalo has slowed things down considerably and seems committed to turning games into slogs rather than opening them up.
Over their last 25 games, the Sabres are 14-10-1 and allowing just 1.7 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five.
For the Islanders, the change has been drastic. Under Lane Lambert they were one of the worst defensive teams in the NHL and were giving up quality scoring chances for fun. Somehow, Patrick Roy has completely turned things around in a month. The numbers are bewildering.
Since Roy took over on Jan. 21, the Islanders lead the NHL in expected goals against and high-danger scoring chances allowed at five-on-five and their 52.1 percent expected goals rate is the ninthbest mark in the circuit. It took the Isles some time to get going under Roy, but the predictive numbers show that this is a sustainable run of form and not just a “new-coach bump.”
Bookmakers have priced this game as essentially a coin flip and that seems fair given the schedule spot for the Isles, but the Under is playable with both clubs happy to limit space and opportunities for the other. Recommendation: Under 6 goals (-110). Michael Leboff analyzes the NHL for Action Network.