Betting against another area Cinderella run? Just say you’re welcome, Wagner
YOU CAN feel stupid betting on March Madness. Not just when you lose, but when you realize the greatest sports day of the year needs no enhancement. When you miss out on the magic of a Cinderella run because you repeatedly bet against a 231st-ranked offense from Jersey City.
With that in mind, here is my gift to Staten Island …
North Carolina (-24.5) over Wagner: The Seahawks have already stung me once, following a 47 percent 3-point performance from the nation’s 332ndranked offense. Unlike two years ago, North Carolina now arrives long before the Elite Eight, with the same inside force (Armando Bacot) who destroyed Saint Peter’s with 20 points and 22 rebounds. Wagner’s defensive strength doesn’t mean much against an offense that put up 100 points against one of the best in the nation (Tennessee). The Seahawks’ only other brushes with power conference teams this season came in a 21-point loss to Seton Hall and a 34-point loss to Providence, long before Wagner was reduced to a six-man rotation. Colorado State (+3) over
Texas: The Longhorns — coming off an Elite Eight run and adding former tournament hero Max Abmas — have rarely played to their potential this season. Texas hasn’t won more than two straight games this calendar year and are 7-14 against the spread as a favorite, while Colorado State has the makings of another First Four darling, carrying the momentum of its 25-point win over Virginia. In the blowout, star guard Isaiah Stevens scored just five points. The Rams haven’t hit their ceiling yet.
South Dakota State (+16.5) over Iowa State: The Cyclones are a Final Four contender. They have the best defense in the country and the nation’s seventh-best scoring margin. They just handed a 28point loss to a 1-seed (Houston) in the Big 12 title game. But T.J. Otzelberger has been to the NCAA Tournament four times, with teams that averaged fewer than 55 points in six games. Another roster that suffers from offensive droughts — and may
be looking ahead to Round 2 — will keep the Jackrabbits from being embarrassed.
Samford (+7.5) over Kansas: Bill Self hasn’t lost in the first round in 18 years, but Kansas is in danger with leading-scorer Kevin McCullar Jr. out for the NCAA Tournament. The Jayhawks have lost four of their past five games — the past two by a combined 50 points — and second-leading scorer Hunter Dickinson is planning to return after dislocating his shoulder less than two weeks ago. Samford’s 10man depth and top-15 pace will be a problem for a shorthanded Kansas squad, facing an opponent that ranks ninth in the nation in 3-point shooting (39.3 percent).
Duquesne (+9.5) over BYU: The Cougars live and die by the 3, making the second-most in the nation. Their losses are littered with sub-30 percent performances. The Dukes — who are 7-3 against the spread as an underdog — have held opponents under 32 percent from deep this season, with a top-30 defense that’s held opponents to an average of fewer than 60 points during their eightgame win streak.
This season: 12-16 2011-23 record: 349308-12