Well-tested Yale will keep it close against Auburn; bank on Florida Atlantic
NORMALLY, I wouldn’t recommend starting 1-12, but the bar for improvement is delightfully easy to clear.
Yale (+12.5) over Auburn: The Bulldogs have been here before — and expected to be again. James Jones — who previously led Yale to an NCAA Tournament triumph over Baylor and a near-upset of LSU — scheduled for March in non-conference play, taking trips to two of the toughest road environments in the country (Kansas, Gonzaga). Yale left without wins, but with the memories of holding a double-digit lead over Kansas and a second-half lead over Gonzaga. The Bulldogs’ balance on both ends of the floor — five players average doubledigit points, including 7-footer Danny Wolf — and ultra-slow tempo will make Bruce Pearl sweat even more than usual.
Florida Atlantic (-3.5) over Northwestern: Naturally, the Owls faced elevated expectations after reaching the Final Four, but a transition to a tougher conference made it nearly impossible for Dusty May’s team to produce a more dominant run than the group that went 35-4 last season. Now, the expectations have evaporated. What remains is a core that ripped up brackets and can still beat any team on its best day.
Charleston (+9.5) over Alabama: The Cougars welcome a shootout, with a deep rotation and uptempo attack that puts up 80 points per game. It’s a problem for the Crimson Tide, whose defense ranks outside the top 100 in defensive efficiency and has allowed an average of more than 96 points per game in the past month. Charleston, which has won 12 straight games to reach a combined 58 wins in the past two seasons, returns a group that nearly upset San Diego State — which reached last year’s title game — in the first round. Baylor (-13.5) over Colgate: In 2015 and 2016, Scott Drew’s Bears suffered first-round upsets to Georgia State and Yale, respectively. Since then, Baylor has made early statements. In four NCAA Tournament appearances as a 3-seed or higher — in
cluding the 2021 title run — Baylor (15-5-2 as a favorite against the spread this season) has won four openinground games by an average of 24 points. Colgate’s strong defense will struggle against a pair of projected first-round picks (Ja’Kobe Walter, Yves Missi) and the nation’s sixth-ranked offense. Similar matchups with Arizona and Illinois didn’t fare well for the Raiders, who lost the two matchups by a combined 44 points. UAB (+6.5) over San Diego State: The outright upset is in play for the Blazers, who are 11-2 against the spread as underdogs and won the AAC Tournament title with three consecutive double-digit wins. UAB has a strong attack that can survive an off-shooting day, featuring a group that ranks among the nation’s best in offensive rebounds and free-throw rate. The Aztecs, who have lost three of their past five games, are more likely to go cold, with the 307th-ranked 3-point shooters (31.3 percent) and the interior presence of UAB’s Yaxel Lendeborg, the AAC Defensive Player of the Year, who averages 2.2 blocks. This season: 15-18 2011-23 record: 349308-12