BET SMART If the Slipper fits...
The round of 64 has come and gone, opening the door for Cinderella teams to make a name for themselves. We’ve seen Yale take down mighty Auburn and a pair of 12 seeds pull off back-to-back upsets to end Friday night. Isn’t college basketball the best?
It’s time to do it all again. Sit on our couches and enjoy the final day of the first weekend. Keeping that in mind, here are my two best bets for Sunday’s NCAA Tournament games:
Colorado (+3.5) vs. Marquette
Marquette might have blown out Western Kentucky in the second half in the first round, but this is an inconsistent team and one that should be faded down the stretch here. Tyler Kolek looked much healthier in his return from injury, but the flaws were still there.
For one, Colorado should be able to control the glass in this matchup. Marquette is outside the top 270 when it comes to both offensive and defensive rebounding. In the first-round matchup against WKU, the Hilltoppers had 14 second-chance opportunities and outrebounded the Golden Eagles, 44-37.
That means the physicality of Eddie Lampkin, Luke O’Brien and Co. should find success sustaining longer possessions for the Buffaloes. Lampkin ranked inside the top five in offensive rebounding rate during Pac-12 play.
This is a hold-your-nose play on Colorado as an underdog. Since Feb. 22, the Buffs rank No. 12 in efficiency and have looked like a completely different team. Cody Williams’ return, though it’s been inconsistent, is a huge plus for a team that lacks depth.
Tack on Marquette’s suspect 3-point defense, and I’m more than happy to grab the points with Colorado here. Shaka Smart’s squad allows more than 43 percent of all attempts to come from the perimeter and sit outside the top 150 in 3-point percentage.
Tad Boyle’s squad is No. 6 in the country in 3-point shooting. Though the Buffs look to attack downhill, they have more than capable shooters from deep. Superstar KJ Simpson connects at a 44 percent clip, and Tristan da Silva, O’Brien and even J’Vonne Hadley all shoot 39 percent or better.
From a talent perspective, I think these teams are pretty even. Marquette is actually the more inconsistent of the two — near the 300 mark, per Haslametrics — and outside the top 300 in momentum.
This is a coin flip game, so I’m more than happy to back Colorado here.
Grand Canyon (+5.5) vs. Alabama
Grand Canyon is eerily reminiscent of the 2013 Florida Gulf Coast “Dunk City” squad. This is a physical, downhill attacking team that jumps out of the gym with highlight reel dunks and blocks. The energy is contagious, and in its win Friday, there was no question which side had the rooting interests of the crowd.
Tyon Grant-Foster is not only one of the best stories in college basketball, but he is a matchup nightmare. The Lopes in general rank 32nd in offensive rebounding and third in the country in FTA/FGA.
This is a great matchup once again for Grand Canyon, despite a contrast in offensive identity. Saint Mary’s wanted to slow down opponents, but Alabama will look to win the race to 100.
The Tide have some serious issues on the defensive end, enough to where I think GCU is more than live to advance to the Sweet 16. Alabama is outside the top 230 in defensive rebounding and near the 300 mark in both turnovers and foul rate.
In other words, where Alabama lacks is exactly the strengths of this Lopes team. We saw Alabama rip through the weak frontcourt of Charleston and light it up from 3 (56.5 percent), but the Tide allowed 1.16 points per possession to the Cougars.
Don’t be surprised to see Bryce Drew’s squad rip the hearts out of Alabama fans here and continue their Cinderella run into the Sweet 16.