Passing Lane
Don’t stop to pick up ’23 Nats breakout OF
THROUGHOUT our lives, there are many things we’ve been trained to avoid. Don’t say “I can’t” to anything that appears difficult. Don’t open emails from unknown addresses, especially those claiming to be a Nigerian prince in need of a very specific dollar amount. Don’t watch the 2014 thriller “Airplane vs. Volcano,” starring Dean Cain and Robin Givens.
It is time to add three more to that list — at least for 2024 fantasy drafts.
Nationals outfielder Lane Thomas went largely undrafted last year before hitting .268 with 28 homers, 86 RBIs, 101 runs scored, 20 stolen bases and a .783 OPS. There was no hint anything like that would — or could — happen. This is a player who hit .237 with 29 homers, 94 RBIs, 108 runs, 15 stolen bases and a .726 OPS in 275 big league games from 201922. And it isn’t like he tore it up over seven seasons in the minors with his .254 average and .755 OPS.
Because of Thomas’ breakout campaign, he has gone from a draft afterthought to a top-25 outfielder who carries an average draft position of 110.1, according to Fantasy Alarm. That seems insane (almost as insane as willingly sitting down to watch “Airplane vs. Volcano” and expecting to be entertained), especially because this was a player who more or less appeared out of nowhere in 2023.
Joining the 20-20 club after being plucked from the bargain bin was great, especially for fantasy managers who picked up Thomas. But, Roto Rage is skeptical when it comes to his ability to repeat. His 5.3 percent walk rate was the 12th-lowest in the majors, and his 25.8 percent whiff rate was the 24th-worst mark. His xBA (.255) was about 20 points below his actual average, and his xSLG (.436) was more than 30 points below his .468 slugging percentage.
A bigger concern: Thomas’ second half. He started strong — hitting .302 with 14 homers, 49 RBIs, 60 runs, eight stolen bases and a .845 OPS in the first half. Despite hitting another 14 homers and stealing 12 bases in the second half, he hit .223 with a .705 OPS after the All-Star break. His on-base percentage dipped from .347 to .274 in that span.
Was that the first sign of regression?
For that price, Roto Rage would prefer an outfielder like St. Louis’ Jordan Walker or Chicago’s Seiya Suzuki, or waiting for guys such as Tyler O’Neill, James Outman or Riley Greene later on.
Thomas will be productive, but the underlying numbers point toward regression from a player who doesn’t have a history of the type of production he put up in 2023.
Esteury Ruiz’s (125.65 ADP) 67 stolen bases was the second-best mark in the majors in 2023 — and he did it in 497 plate appearances, nearly 240 less than league-leader Ronald Acuna Jr. But, he doesn’t hit for power and his walk rate is non-existent. His OBP in ’23 was below average and his xBA (.234) was 20 points below his actual average (.254). He is a one-trick pony, hitting at the bottom of an awful A’s lineup, who is being drafted above more wellrounded players because he is very fast. Hard pass.
Luis Robert (33.1) is coming off a great season (.264, 38 HR, 80 RBIs, 90 R, 20 SB, .857 OPS), the first in which he surpassed 100 games played (before 2023, he never played more than 98 games in a season). The issue is not talent, he has got plenty of that. The issue is his high price tag, injury history and likelihood of hitting in the middle of a low-scoring White Sox offense.