Buzz off, Houston: Don’t bet against A&M coach
ITHOUGHT the only thing that could ruin the magic of March was expanding the NCAA Tournament and minimizing the role of mid-majors. I now see another threat — the never-ending reviews in the final minutes of games. Complete accuracy is unattainable (See: Samford’s game-changing block). Entertainment needs to be the priority.
Texas A&M (+10.5) over Houston: Few coaches handle a one-day prep better than Buzz Williams, who has won his past four trips to the Round of 32 and is one win from taking a third school to the Sweet 16. The Aggies — who have already upset Tennessee, Iowa State and Kentucky (twice) this season — are coming off their best offensive showing of the season, scoring 98 points against Nebraska’s 31st-ranked defense to earn their sixth win in seven games. An upset of the top-seeded Cougars wouldn’t be shocking to a group — which struggled shooting in a regular season matchup at Houston, yet lost by four — that leads the nation in offensive rebounds and commits fewer than 10 turnovers per game.
James Madison (+7.5) over Duke: The Dukes deserved better than a 12-seed. Duke will soon find out. Unlike other double-digit seeds that needed irreplicable shooting performances to advance, James Madison shot below its season average and still controlled a wire-to-wire win over Wisconsin. James Madison — which opened the season with a win at Michigan State — enters with the nation’s longest winning streak (14 games), a 2-0 mark against the spread against ranked teams and the second-ranked 3-point defense (28.9 percent) in the country.
Grand Canyon (+5.5) over Alabama: Few teams looked more impressive in the first round than the Crimson Tide. Few schools have fared worse in supposed mismatches in the Dance. As a 2-seed in 2021, Alabama was upset by 11-seed UCLA. As a 6-seed in 2022, Alabama was upset in the first round. As the No. 1-overall seed in last year’s Tournament, it couldn’t get past 5-seed San Diego State. Unlike last year, Nate Oats no longer has balance, with a team ranking 117th in the nation in defensive efficiency and 352nd in scoring defense.
San Diego State (-5.5) over Yale: Just two Ivy League teams in the past 43 years have advanced to the Sweet 16. Don’t bank on it happening in back-to-back years. Yale’s first-round upset of Auburn was thrilling but also fluky, requiring a careerhigh 28 points from John Poulakidas and a meltdown by the Tigers — featuring unforced turnovers and missed free throws. The Aztecs — last year’s tournament runner-up — will relish a matchup with a team that plays at their preferred pace, allowing their top 10-defense to lock down in a halfcourt contest. This season: 20-22 2011-23 record: 349-308-12