MacKinnon provides value over Kucherov
Most of the markets for NHL awards futures are dry as a raisin at this point, with run-away favorites in place for the Calder, Norris, Vezina and Jack Adams Trophies.
It would be hard to imagine Connor Bedard, Quinn Hughes, Connor Hellebuyck and Rick Toccet not being named the winner of each of them, respectively.
In the meantime, the points race continues as the 2023-24 MVP remains in the balance. Three clear-cut contenders are making a case for the Hart Trophy with 3 ¹/₂ weeks left to play in the regular season.
Only six times in the salary-cap era has the same player sealed both the Hart and Art Ross in the same season, including Connor McDavid last year.
Let’s look at how things stand in contrast to who offers reasonable pricing for both awards down the stretch.
Nathan MacKinnon to win
Art Ross Trophy (+200, FanDuel)
Nikita Kucherov led the league at 123 points with 12 games left in the Lightning season entering play Sunday. He had potted four-plus points in three of his last five games during a 13-game point streak.
Kucherov is amid his third 10-plus point streak and is a key facilitator in propelling the Lightning back into contention. Tampa Bay had won five of its last six games entering Sunday and is on course to safely secure a wild-card spot at the very least.
He’s the -150 favorite to win the Art Ross with Nathan MacKinnon trailing him by four points with also 12 games left to play entering Sunday’s games.
MacKinnon has pumped out over three more expected goals than Kucherov. He’s spearheading an Avalanche team that ranks eighth in expected goals rate in contrast to the Lightning, who rank 19th.
Having Mikko Rantenan on the wing also helps. Rantenan has 96 points in 70 games and is also a top-20 player in expected goals rate.
You could say the same for Brayden Point on Kucherov’s line, but the
Lightning aren’t as multi-dimensional as the Avalanche, putting them in some more precarious situations throughout this season.
The Avalanche play a fast and furious offensive game that rarely keeps them ball-and-chained in their own end. It’s not a tell-all stat, but MacKinnon is plus-30 on the season to Kucherov’s plus-6.
Both of these guys are running a mile a minute as the finish line draws near. If you’re going to bet on this market, you might as well wager on the player who holds the significant value.
Connor McDavid to win Hart Trophy (+490, FanDuel)
MacKinnon has yet to win MVP despite a handful of tremendous campaigns, and that’s mostly due to Connor McDavid being too unworldly to ignore.
McDavid has won the Hart Trophy three times. He’s put the Oilers franchise on his back every year of his career, persevering through a fair share of roster voids that have prevented him from hoisting a Stanley Cup.
Keeping everything I just mentioned about MacKinnon in mind, it’s clear why he’s the -165 favorite to win the Hart at FanDuel.
I don’t like Kucherov at +320 because whether he wins the Art Ross or not, he doesn’t have the same two-way forward profile for the Hart. Kucherov won it in 2018-19, but that was after leading the Lightning to the best regular-season record in the history of the NHL at the time.
That said, you might as well take the modern era’s most clutch player, especially given that the Oilers have at least one game in hand on everyone else in the NHL.
McDavid had posted six games with four-plus points and had multi-point performances in four of his last five games entering Sunday. It’s really hard to doubt him even if he is eight points behind the lead.
But remember, the Hart Trophy is more than just about point totals. McDavid sits in the top five of expected goal differential at plus-21.75, according to Clear Sight Analytics.
He’s also the No. 1 player in passes that have led to high-quality scoring chances, holding 20.80 expected assists.
It’s all par for the course for McDavid, but the most important argument is how the Oilers went on a 16-game victory spree through the New Year after sitting outside the playoffs for the first three months.
McDavid recorded points in all but one of those games, tallying a total of 26.