YOU CAN BE THE JUDGE
PREDICTIONS are a tricky business, which I proved last year by getting nearly everything wrong. I did correctly predict Gerrit Cole would win the AL Cy Young award and Shohei Ohtani would win AL MVP, but there’s no need for any bows since I considered those easy. As for the rest of it, do me a favor and look away.
I promise to do better this year (it would be impossible to do worse). Anyway, here goes nothing (though I hope it isn’t next to nothing a second straight year):
AL MVP: Aaron Judge, Yankees. I’m a little worried about his abdominal injury, even more than the foot issue. But if he’s OK (or close to OK), he’s the best player in the league. He doesn’t have to hit 62 home runs again, either. Multiple AL MVP Ohtani is in the other league (and only DHing), which makes this a relatively easy call for me. I don’t get two picks, but Pete Alonso’s high school teammate Kyle Tucker, the Astros star, would be my choice if Judge’s injuries prove worse than the Yankees are saying, which is always a possibility. The Royals’ emerging superstar Bobby Witt Jr. is my dark horse, but it’s hard to win the award on an also-ran team.
NL MVP: Ronald Acuña Jr., Braves. Sorry to go with the obvious chalk here, but how do you bet against the 40-70 man? My other possible pick and last year’s second-place finisher, Mookie Betts, is being reintroduced to shortstop, which is an impossible task for just about anyone, and maybe even for Betts. Acuña is the best position player in the NL, and with Ohtani only a DH in 2024, this is the obvious call, even in a stacked field that includes Freddie Freeman, Austin Riley, Matt Olson, Bryce Harper and Corbin Carroll.
AL Cy Young: Tarik Skubal, Tigers. This is my one surprise pick, but really, it shouldn’t be such a surprise. Skubal was 4-0 with a 0.90 ERA and 43 strikeouts in 30 innings in September. Besides having one of the coolest names in the game, Skubal has big stuff. His big finish to 2023 makes me believe he can be an ace. Cole is my pick every year, but with him out for the first part of the season, I’m going for a bit of a flier here. It’s been a rough year for arms already, with Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer out for now, Justin Verlander starting slow and so many other questions arising in spring. Skubal seems to be one of the few lighting it up. Luis Castillo is my second choice. Among the Yankees’ mistakes of omission, I rank Castillo behind Harper but ahead of Manny Machado. I get why they didn’t want to include Anthony Volpe, but in hindsight, Oswald Peraza should have been sent to Cincinnati, no questions asked.
NL Cy Young: Zack Wheeler, Phillies. Who could have foreseen that he’d be the best pitcher of all the ex-Mets, ahead of Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard and even deGrom? But his $42 million record salary (for an extension) tops even deGrom’s $37 million. And beyond that, as injury-prone as deGrom has been, Wheeler has been remarkably available and durable in this age of attrition for pitchers.
AL Rookie of the Year: Wyatt Langford, Rangers. The recent draftee tore up the Cactus League and looks ready to become a terror in an outstanding Rangers lineup. Langford, who’s being compared to a young Mike Trout, won’t have big pressure in a batting order that includes Corey Seager, Adolis Garcia and many other established veterans, but he’s built to handle it, anyway. Langford’s teammate Evan Carter, a postseason star, is probably the favorite. And the Orioles have a few popular choices, including Jackson Holliday, who’s baseball’s No. 1 prospect, Heston Kjerstad and Colton Cowser.
NL Rookie of the Year: Kyle Harrison, Giants. This lefty looks like a star for years to come, beginning right now. The rare rookie penciled into a rotation to start the year has big stuff and should strike out a ton. The only question is control. Jackson Chourio of the Brewers looks like a superstar in waiting, but like Holliday, he only just turned 20, so expecting him to star now may be a bit much. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has to be the favorite, so this is a bit of a surprise.
AL Manager of the Year: Rocco Baldelli, Twins. The Twins have won the AL Central three of the past five years despite major injuries, and Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton and Kyle Lewis will start 2024 active, which is a major plus. While they lost Sonny Gray in free agency, they still look like the class of a very winnable division. Plus, Baldelli is really good.
NL Manager of the Year: Craig Counsell, Cubs. At these prices — $8 million per for five years — he better be good. And he should be. The winningest manager in Brewers history, Counsell made the playoffs five times in nine seasons managing his hometown team. He finished second multiple times in Milwaukee, but in Chicago, he’ll have more resources. The Cubs are probably the favorites in the NL Central, which may work against his chances, but this guy is good. Not sure any manager (except Bruce Bochy) is worth this kind of coin. But if anyone is, maybe it’s this guy.
This Team Will Surprise: Padres. They lost Juan Soto, Blake Snell and Josh Hader — all among the best at what they do — but they still have some big stars and some very good prospects.
They also had a very nice camp and seem together. Don’t forget the team that went 82-80 last year lost almost all its extra-inning games (1-12), had an amazingly poor overall record in one-run games
(9-23) and was a plus-105 in run differential, which was better than five playoff teams. When it came to their performance vs. their record, no one underachieved like them.
This Team Will Disappoint: Blue Jays. They had a strange winter. As we know, they made a big play for Ohtani, and for a day, anyway, it looked like they had a good shot at him. But rather than add stars who could at least give them similar to what they had last year, they passed on Cody Bellinger and old friend Matt Chapman and instead opted for solid guys like Kevin Kiermaier and Isiah Kiner-Falefa on what looked like steep overpays by the end of the winter. Bringing in hometown hero Joey Votto was a nice touch, but this is a big market, and they seemed to settle after the disappointment of failing to land Ohtani.
This Player Will Become a Big Story: Pete Alonso. If the Mets don’t contend, they will have to decide whether they should trade Alonso for prospects. That would of course trigger a much greater outcry than last July’s deadline dealing that sent away two Hall of Famers, Verlander and Max Scherzer. It’s hard to see them doing it. But it might be the smart thing to do, especially if you believe you won’t be able to sign him back. The Cubs, who are said to like Alonso, are one potential candidate to acquire him, but many teams could use a consistent 40-homer hitter. That includes the Mets, of course.
POST’S MLB INSIDER SEES 2ND MVP FOR THE YANKEES’ CAPTAIN IN HIS ANNUAL PREDICTIONS
Aaron Judge already won one MVP award in 2022 and could have his sights set on another in 2024.