SWING FOR THE FENCES: A 5-MAN ROTATION OF PROP BET WINNERS
A little tease of what’s to come, Major League Baseball got us going in South Korea last week with a two-game set of Dodgers vs. Padres.
Now we can get into the real meat and potatoes of the 2024 MLB season, and we’re all about prop bets.
Last year, we picked Yordan Alvarez to lead the league in RBIs — a bet he was comfortably on his way to winning had he stayed healthy. Alvarez was running away with the RBI title in June before an injury shaved off over a month and a half of his season, and the bet was lost. Matt Olson wound up winning that crown and cashing bets as a mid-sized long shot.
Injuries are a part of these awards, and that is why we bet on them. There’s value to be had in projecting — or not projecting — the positive health of a player.
We have it all this year as we look at the 2024 season and grab some seasonlong futures bets with value this season:
Joey Gallo Under 22.5 home runs (+100, BetMGM): Yankees fans will love to hear it, and their betting accounts’ balance will thank you. Gallo has been an abject disaster since his 38-homer season in 2021.
Gallo hasn’t hit 22 home runs since, and is now a part of a rebuilding Nationals franchise that won’t win many games and will be looking to play the likes of Dylan Crews and James Wood over Gallo later this season.
Gallo’s 21 homers last season may give some pause to the — “well, he was close last year” — crew, but his health is also a significant piece here. The ex-Yankee hasn’t had more than 300 plate appearances in three seasons since 2019. He’s never healthy and will be on the outside looking in on playing time once the calendar strikes August.
Wyatt Langford to hit over 20.5 home runs (+100, BetMGM): If you haven’t heard of him yet, you will. Langford is a star prospect in Texas who could be prepared to take over as a premier power hitter in the American League.
Langford had a very strong spring training. Major league pitching will adjust eventually, but for now, this is a premier-hitting prospect with some extremely impressive raw power.
His 70-rating power tool by MLB.com is among the highest in baseball for any prospect, and the Rangers announced Friday he had made the Opening Day roster alongside outfielder Evan Carter.
Texas also has one of the best lineups in baseball to protect their young star and the seventh-easiest stadium to hit home runs according to Statcast.
Don’t miss the boat here — he’s an elite power hitter already.
Detroit Tigers to win American League Central (+360, FanDuel): Don’t look now, but Detroit is building
a winner in 2024. Between their former No. 1 overall pick, Spencer Torkelson, taking a big leap forward in 2024 and pitcher Tarik Skubal potentially moving into elite company, this is the time to buy what the Tigers are selling.
Their division is mostly a joke as well, with the Twins and Guardians somehow ahead of them by a wider margin than they should be.
You may have noticed that the Tigers were sneakily awesome down the stretch in August and September while the rest of the division floundered. Their 18-10 record in September was the second-best in baseball and that’s no fluke. They are healthy and ready to rock the boat in a terrible division.
Juan Soto most regular-season home runs (27/1, FanDuel): This betting line on FanDuel is just nonsense for the Yankees’ shiny new addition.
Soto is on a contract year, with Aaron Judge protection in the lineup and the short porch in the right field to boot. Soto is mostly thought of as a contact hitter, high on-base percentage guy — which is all true. But the Yankee Stadium short porch is an advantage that no other lefty bat in the running will get to enjoy for a full 81-game home schedule. The ex-National and Padre loves hitting into the gaps, but there are at least a few cheap home runs he can snag to make this bet a success.
Enjoy this one while you can — he may lose the short porch after this season if he goes running crosstown to the Metropolitans.
Chris Sale to win NL Cy Young award (70/1 BetRivers): An old enemy of the Yankees becomes a new enemy of the Mets. Sale was traded for a bucket of balls by the embarrassing Red Sox, and now we will all have to deal with the Braves reaping the benefits.
Sale looked awesome in spring training, striking out hitters at an impressive clip and finally looks healthy for the first time since 2019.
In Boston last year, Sale had a 29.2 percent strikeout rate — 17th-best in baseball with fellow Braves pitcher Spencer Strider ahead of him. It is widely expected that Strider will win the NL Cy Young this year, but his counterpart is live as well, considering a change in leagues.
Like Strider, Sale doesn’t have to deal with his own lineup as an opponent, and the American League already scored more runs than the National League last year. His advantage is massive heading into 2024.