Koepka finally has it Mastered
The 2024 Masters tees off Thursday, and this year’s hunt for the green jacket could play out unlike any other for a number of reasons.
First, Scottie Scheffler (+400) will tee off as the shortest favorite at the Masters since Tiger Woods went off at +350 in 2014. Then you also have to consider that some of the best players in this field are plying their trade on the LIV Tour, so this is their first opportunity to go head-to-head with PGA Tour players this year.
And, perhaps most importantly, you need to keep in mind this has been the year of the long shot on the PGA Tour. We’ve already seen 11 winners who have gone off at 50/1 or longer, and eight of those players were listed at 100/1 or longer.
With all of that in mind, here are some players to circle at Augusta this week:
Top of the board (Under 25/1)
Brooks Koepka (22/1, FanDuel):
One thing to keep in mind when betting the Masters is that it usually turns into a grind to the finish. The winning score is usually around 10-under par, and 36 of the past 37 winners were inside the top 10 after two rounds.
Per Justin Ray of the 21st Club, the average 36-hole deficit for a Masters winner over the past 20 years is 1.9 strokes. In other words, you need a player who can hold his nerve down the stretch, and very few golfers in this field fit that profile better than Koepka. A five-time major champion, Koepka has a pair of runner-up finishes at Augusta, and there’s nothing concerning about his current form.
Best buy-low opportunity
Viktor Hovland (40/1, DraftKings):
There would have been a line out the
door if you offered this price to punters back in January. Massive things were expected from Hovland in 2024 after he won the Tour Championship in August, but things are rarely linear in golf, and the Norwegian has failed to carry his form in the new season. Hovland has just one top-20 finish in four full-field events this year, and he hasn’t looked like a threat in any of his starts. And though some punters look at that lack of form as a red flag, I’ll take it as an opportunity to buy low.
Best sleeper
Shane Lowry (60/1, DraftKings) :It seems as if Lowry is always priced in this range for majors, and he always attracts plenty of support. It’s for good reason. The Irishman may not have the most wins on his résumé, but he is one of the sport’s most underrated big-game hunters. Lowry has a Claret Jug on his mantle already, and he has finished inside the top five in every one of the majors.
Lowry’s career at Augusta didn’t get off to a hot start, but he’s finished inside the top 20 in each of his past two trips down Magnolia Lane, including a tie for third in 2023. Add in the fact that Lowry has two top-five finishes (and a top-20) in his past three PGA Tour events, and you’ve made yourself a pretty good case for a bet at this number.
Best triple-digit long shot
Sergio Garcia (120/1, FanDuel):
Usually you have to try pretty hard to make a case for players in this range, but it’s actually not that outlandish to suggest Garcia can contend here. Of course it’s unlikely he beats out a star-studded field, but this is a former Masters winner showing some flashes of form at the exact right time. Garcia has two runner-up finishes on LIV this season, including last week in Miami.
Michael Leboff analyzes golf for Action Network.