Handicapping ups & downs in EPL
The soap opera known as the English Premier League is set up for one of its most dramatic conclusions ever. Not only did the title race take a turn with Liverpool dropping points to Manchester United last weekend, but the relegation battle — which looked all but over after Everton defeated Burnley on Saturday — also took a twist when the former was handed its second points deduction of the season.
Only one point separates the three title contenders going into the upcoming match week and there are five teams within five points of another at the other end of the table.
Let’s try to size up the futures market and see if there’s any value left as we head down the stretch.
The title race
Arsenal is atop the Premier League thanks to its superior goal difference, but the margin is essentially nil between the Gunners, who have 71 points and a +51 goal differential, Liverpool (71 points, +42 GD) and Manchester City (70 points, +40 GD).
It’s just as tight on the betting board as City is a +150 favorite, just ahead of Arsenal (+175) and Liverpool (+225).
The fact that City is the favorite, albeit a very lukewarm one, despite being behind in both points and goal difference really tells you everything you need to know about this team. They’ve won the league three seasons on the spin and five times in the past six years. The Sky Blues are also coming off a treble (FA Cup, Champions League and Premier League) in 2022-23 and have a chance to do it again this spring, all the while becoming the first team to ever win four straight Premier League titles.
City’s pedigree is only part of the equation. They also have the easiest run-in of any of the title contenders. The Cityzens’ remaining opponents have won, on average, 39.8 points this season, while Arsenal’s opposition have averaged 45.8 points and Liverpool’s have taken 43.5.
And beyond that, Arsenal and Liverpool both have to play their local rivals. Liverpool will be a decided favorite against Everton, but it will not be an easy match and Arsenal will certainly have its hands full with fourth-place Tottenham, who also have a date with the other two contenders.
It’s not the most exciting bet in the world, but City rarely gets this high to win the Premier League these days, so it may be worth taking a hard look at the +150.
The relegation battle
It seems likely at this point that the three newly promoted sides — Sheffield United (15 points), Burnley (19 points) and Luton Town (25 points) — will go right back down to the Championship, but there is a slight path out of the relegation zone for Luton Town.
The Hatters will almost certainly lose this weekend to Manchester City, but the schedule opens up after that. Only one of Luton’s last five matches is against a tophalf side and that team, West Ham, is extremely fortunate to be as high as it is in the standings. Additionally, the Hatters will play two clubs (Everton and Brentford) that are also in this relegation kerfuffle.
This isn’t to say that Luton Town is a good bet at +125 to survive relegation, but rather that there is a chance that another club could fall down a few places.
Which brings us to Crystal Palace. It seemed like the Eagles were comfortably going to finish in the midtable all season, but the team has not been able to build any momentum since hiring Oliver Glasner as their new manager.
Now just five points ahead of Luton Town (with a game in hand, albeit), Palace fans are getting a little restless and their schedule is daunting. Five out of Palace’s last seven matches are against clubs inside the top-8 and the other two are against clubs above them in the standings. There is a chance this goes completely bottoms up for the Eagles, who are worth a sprinkle to go down at +2000.