Relegated Sheffield may play spoiler
Sheffield United is almost certainly going to get relegated at the end of this season.
The Blades are sitting on 16 points and would need to make up 10 points in seven matches to avoid the drop. It’s not going to happen.
But that doesn’t mean you should just ignore Sheffield United for the rest of the campaign. In fact, it looks like the Blades could be worth a bet against Brentford, another team trying to stave off relegation, on Saturday.
The Bees are a -235 favorite over Sheffield United on Saturday morning. It’s one of two bets on my card for this weekend’s English Premier League action.
Brentford vs. Sheffield United (10 a.m. Eastern, Saturday)
You need to work pretty hard to find an avenue for a bet on a last-place team in any sport, but Sheffield United is showing some marginal improvements of late.
The Blades haven’t won a match since Feb. 10 at Luton Town, but they’ve also lost just two of their past five contests and have earned draws against Chelsea, Bournemouth and Fulham in that span.
Though one of the defeats during this five-game stretch was an embarrassing 6-0 drubbing by Arsenal, the other was a hardfought 3-1 loss to Liverpool at Anfield.
It also can’t be overlooked that Sheffield United is actually scoring goals these days, too.
The Blades have found the back of the net in each of their past four games, and the arrival of Ben Brereton Diaz has given this attack a jolt.
Brentford hasn’t looked too sound defensively. With the attack improving and the defense showing some signs of life, Sheffield United should be able to give Brentford a real go on Saturday.
The Bees are currently riding a ninematch winless streak and will be under heaps of pressure to put some distance between themselves and 18th-place Luton Town.
There could be some stylistic issues in this match for Brentford, too.
The Bees aren’t a team that is comfortable dominating possession and trying to break down their opponents and that’s likely what they’ll be asked to do on Saturday.
This is a trickier fixture for Brentford than these odds suggest. Take a shot with Sheffield United on Saturday.
Recommendation: Sheffield United (+650, Caesars)
Arsenal vs. Aston Villa (11:30 a.m., Sunday)
At first glance, you’d think this line looks pretty wide for a matchup between firstplace Arsenal and fifth-place Aston Villa.
The Gunners are a -350 home favorite against a team that is just four spots and 11 points behind them in the standings. That’s a smaller gap between Chelsea and Everton and the former is just a -140 favorite at home against the Toffees on Monday.
But seasoned bettors know that standings and box scores rarely tell the full story. So while Arsenal and Aston Villa appear like teams in Tier A and Tier B, respectively, that’s not actually the case.
Arsenal is one of the best teams in the world at the moment and is, almost unequivocally, the best defensive side in all of soccer.
That’s a terrible matchup against a team such as Aston Villa, which relies on its offensive prowess to cover up some significant defensive flaws.
Villa currently ranks fourth in the Premier League in goals and is seventh in non-penalty expected goals, but they’ll certainly have issues generating against the Gunners, who top the table in essentially every defensive metric.
Things are just as concerning on the other end of the pitch for Villa, who rank 17th in the Premier League in preventing big scoring chances and 12th in expected goals conceded.
Arsenal should have no issues finding the back of the net in this contest, and I trust their defense to allow them to pull off a rout in front of a raucous crowd on Sunday. Recommendation: Arsenal -2.5 (+190) Michael Leboff analyzes soccer for Action Network.