Getting up to Speed
Following back-to-back short-track races, the NASCAR Cup Series heads to a 1.5-mile quad-oval this week with the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400 at Texas Motor Speedway (3:30 p.m., FS1).
Kyle Larson, the 2021 Texas winner, is the favorite (+425) at BetMGM. Former Texas winners Denny Hamlin (+650), Tyler Reddick (+700) and William Byron (+700) represent his biggest challengers.
The season’s first 1.5-mile track saw Larson and Reddick finish one-two. Are we looking at a similar result, or will a surprise contender emerge at Texas?
Here are the best bets for Sunday’s Cup Series race at Texas.
Larson to win (+425, BetMGM)
The path to victory lane at Texas Motor Speedway goes through Larson. The No. 5 car goes for its second victory of the season after dominating Las Vegas in March.
That race is the best comparison for Texas, as it’s the only high-speed 1.5-mile race of 2024. Going back to last season, Larson has ranked top three in speed in seven of the past eight 1.5-mile high-speed races.
Larson put on a clinic in the 2021 Texas race, leading 256 of 334 laps en route to the victory. He had the car to beat last season, leading 99 laps before crashing while battling for the lead in the final 20 laps.
I know the odds are low, but they could get worse if he qualifies near the front. Grab Larson while you can, and look out for a dominant performance.
Byron top-3 finish (+210, Caesars)
Byron picked up his series-leading third victory of the season last week at Martinsville. Byron has staked his claim as the championship favorite and should have another strong run at Texas.
Larson’s late-race wreck in last year’s race opened the door for Byron to score his first Texas win. In the two races before that, he led 55 and 42 laps, respectively.
He ranks second in total speed over the past two Texas races and third in speed on high-speed 1.5-mile tracks since the beginning of 2023. He likely would’ve been a top contender at Las Vegas if not for an early-race incident.
Byron is flexing his muscle as the best driver in NASCAR. He should be up front again, battling Larson for the win.
Reddick top-5 finish (+140, bet365)
Reddick has just five starts in the Cup Series at Texas, but he’s been fast since Day 1. He finished second in his first start before winning the 2022 race. Reddick led a race-high 70 laps in the victory.
He was a top contender last year, leading 36 laps, but late carnage ruined a strong finish. Overall, the 1.5-mile tracks have been very kind to the Toyota driver.
Reddick won last year’s playoff race at Kansas and nearly knocked off Larson at Vegas this year. It was clear he was the only car with enough speed to challenge Larson. That speed should carry over to Texas.
Busch top-10 finish (-110, BetMGM)
Kyle Busch was the points leader after the two drafting tracks to start the season. Six races later, he’s 15th and on the playoff cutline. It’s been a tough stretch for Busch, but Texas represents a good bounce-back opportunity.
Busch crashed out of the past two Texas races, but the speed numbers indicate he had a top-10 car. That falls in line with his speed on high-speed 1.5-mile tracks since 2023.
Overall, he has been the fifth-best driver at the track type. He has six straight races with a speed rating inside the top 10, including this year’s Vegas race.
I doubt Busch will compete for the win Sunday, but he should have enough speed to finish top 10.
Nick Sterling analyzes NASCAR for Action Network.