Quarter backing PSG & Arsenal
It’s very rare that all four Champions League quarterfinal fixtures are still up for grabs by the time we get to the second legs, but that’s the case this year. Two of the matchups (Real Madrid vs. Manchester City and Bayern Munich vs. Arsenal) are tied, while the other two (Barcelona vs. PSG and Atletico Madrid vs. Borussia Dortmund) are within a goal.
There should be plenty of drama over the next two days and there are also some brilliant betting opportunities for those looking for a midweek sweat.
Barcelona vs. Paris Saint-Germain, Tuesday
Neither Barca nor PSG has shown it is capable of shutting down matches this season, so it’s not a shocker that the first leg of this quarterfinal was a bit bonkers. Barcelona ended up winning, 3-2, in Paris and is a -425 favorite to advance to the semifinals.
Taking a one-goal lead back home is a massive edge for Barcelona, but if we learned anything from the first leg it’s that these two sides have no problem engaging in a back-and-forth battle.
Barcelona is rightfully favored to win this match and advance, but PSG is absolutely still live in this round and beyond. And if Les Parisiens are able to advance, they’d be favorites in the semifinals against either Atletico or Dortmund.
The hectic nature of this matchup, along with PSG’s upside, makes this a great opportunity to buy low on Kylian Mbappe and Co. Whether that means a bet on PSG to advance or a shot on it to win the entire competition is up to how frisky you’re feeling.
Recommendations: PSG to advance (+320, DraftKings): PSG to win the
Champions League (14/1, BetMGM).
Arsenal vs. Bayern Munich, Wednesday
Things quickly have gone south for Arsenal. At this time last week, Arsenal was neck-and-neck with Manchester City in the Premier League and was a clear favorite to beat Bayern Munich in this quarterfinal. A 2-2 draw with the Bavarians at home followed by a 2-0 loss to Aston Villa in the Premier League has changed the perception.
A once promising season is now on the brink of turning into a lost opportunity.
The good news for punters is that sentiment has seemed to seep into the betting market.
As concerning as it was to see Arsenal struggle over the last week, its overall body of work remains elite this season. The Gunners are the best defensive side in Europe and even if their attack looked dormant over the weekend, it should still have some success against a Bayern side that has struggled to find any sort of consistency in the Bundesliga.
Going on the road in the Champions League is never easy — especially at the Allianz — but this isn’t your father’s Bayern Munich side. It just had its 11year reign as Bundesliga champions ended and will be under a ton of pressure to get through to the Champions League semifinals. And while the bookmakers make the Bavarians slight favorites, I’ll go the other way here and buy low on Arsenal.
Rather than betting Arsenal to advance at +100, I’ll take a shot on the Gunners on the three-way moneyline (meaning they need to win the match in regulation) at +185.
Recommendation: Arsenal moneyline +180 (DraftKings).
Michael Leboff analyzes soccer for Action Network.