Bruins exposing Toronto’s fatal flaw
Roy may have revealed his game 3 starter
In a weird way the Bruins and Maple Leafs have switched profiles in Round 1.
For the Bruins, the clearest avenue to success is a game that features more scoring chances and space to operate. This allows their goaltenders, whether it be Jeremy Swayman or Linus Ullmark, to be the difference.
For the Maple Leafs, who finished second in the NHL in goals per game this season, the best path to a win is to make life easy on their mercurial goaltender, Ilya Samsonov, and keep things tidy so that their elite playmakers can provide the big moment in a tight contest.
That is not how you’d expect a series between the Bruins, known for their stout defense and commitment to structure, and Maple Leafs, known for their high-octane offense, to play out.
But each team’s strengths and weaknesses in this particular season are pushing this series in that direction. Toronto’s blue line is a liability with the puck, so that puts pressure on the forwards to think defense first and not cheat. The Maple Leafs can ill afford mistakes, knowing that falling behind by multiple goals will be tough sledding against Boston’s goaltenders and defense corps.
The Bruins will look to exploit those weaknesses by being aggressive on the forecheck and forcing Toronto’s defensemen into making mistakes. That means playing with a little more risk in their game in order to increase the pressure on the Maple Leafs when they have the puck.
On top of all of this is the fact that these are two evenly matched teams. The Bruins were a slight favorite to win the best-of-seven, but no series in Round 1 had tighter odds than Boston vs. Toronto. After splitting the first two games, the betting market has deemed this thing a coin flip, which is essentially where the odds for Game 3 currently sit.
That all makes sense. The Bruins were the better team in Game 1, but Toronto showed some resolve in Game 2 to get the series back on level terms. The Maple Leafs had to come back from a pair of one-goal deficits and allowed Auston Matthews to be the difference-maker in the end.
And while Matthews is one of the best players on the planet and is one of a few skaters who can win a best-of-seven on his own, it’s not a formula that seems all that sustainable. Toronto, which has played both games without William Nylander, will need more production from Mitch Marner and stronger play from its defense corps to keep up with the Bruins, but even then it’s still hard to be sure that Samsonov will be composed throughout this series.
The Bruins will need to find a way to slow down Matthews, especially in Toronto when the Maple Leafs will get the last change, but if they can do that they should have the edge in Game 3 and beyond.
Matthews could very just take over and that may be enough to win this series, but there are just too many question marks beyond No. 34 to view this series as a coin flip, even if Toronto now has home-ice advantage.
Boston’s goaltending and Toronto’s haphazard defense give enough of an edge to the Bruins in this best-of-seven.
Recommendation: Bruins to win the series (-110, FanDuel).
Michael Leboff analyzes the NHL for Action Network.
Patrick Roy surely did not mean to lay out the rationale for sticking with Semyon Varlamov in net when asked Tuesday morning whether he would do so for a must-win Game 3 against Carolina, but — though not saying that doing so was the plan — that’s just what the Islanders’ coach did.
“We haven’t made the decision yet, what we’re gonna do. Varly was phenomenal down the stretch for us,” Roy said. “If we make the playoffs, he has a big part to play in it.
“What I like about Varly is he kept a lot of pucks around. This is a team that loves to shoot a lot. They shoot from everywhere. They may have even took a shot from outside of the building. At the end of the day, they’re very active offensively. They love to put pucks at the net, they love to drive to the net. So Varly kept a lot of pucks around him and that’s what I love about Varly. Not giving too many rebounds and holding those pucks, and I think that helps our ‘D’.”
Left unsaid: Poor rebound control is one of the reasons Ilya Sorokin lost the starting job in the first place. Roy would be right to worry that it could be an issue against a Carolina team that is going to get looks on net even on its worst night, let alone against an Islanders side that could not effectively possess, or even clear, the puck for most of a 5-3 defeat in Game 2.
Going away from Sorokin late in the regular season was the right decision in the moment, and Varlamov’s play down the stretch is the single biggest reason the Islanders made the postseason to begin with. Over the first two games of the first round, Varlamov has been the Islanders’ best player.
But since becoming the full-time starter in October 2022, so has Sorokin.
Similar logic applied to last year’s Panthers, who started Alex Lyon over Sergei Bobrovsky in Game 1 of the playoffs after Lyon’s play down the stretch helped get them into the postseason. Lyon split the two games against the Bruins, struggled and got the hook in a Game 3 loss, then didn’t start another game the rest of the way as Bobrovsky led the charge to the Stanley Cup Final.
Florida coach Paul Maurice put his faith in the guy whose $10 million annual salary means he is the franchise. And Bobrovsky started playing like someone worthy of that title.
Sorokin’s $8.25 million annual hit on an eight-year deal that kicks in next season means he is the franchise, even if he hasn’t played like it this season. Varlamov has not earned the hook, but sitting a player like Sorokin for an entire playoff series would come with shades of Billy Smith sitting for all but one game of the 1978 first round against the Maple Leafs.
It is also worth considering whether the Islanders should be proactive in keeping Varlamov from wearing down. Varlamov started just 18 games between Oct. 21 and Feb. 22. He has started 12 since March 10 and seen 30 or more shots in a game four times this month.
The Hurricanes faced a similar (albeit more stark) decision with Frederik Andersen going into Game 2 and chose wrong in sticking with him. Andersen allowed three goals on the first nine shots he saw and would have been responsible had Carolina lost.
After a Game 2 collapse that stands as one of the worst playoff losses the franchise has ever suffered — the only time in Islanders history they have lost a playoff game with a three-goal lead, thanks to two goals allowed in 9 seconds that ties a playoff club record — they are in dire need of a spark. Sorokin is a potential match.
Roy, of course, might be the single most qualified person on the planet to make this decision. So whatever he decides, the Hall of Fame netminder deserves some benefit of the doubt.
But, since Roy did bring up Game 5 of the 2001 Cup Final on Tuesday, it’s worth noting that seeing David Aebischer start Game 6 in New Jersey would have put some jaws on the floor.
It’s hard to bench the franchise, after all.