Heavy waits
Don’t be in rush to cut early picks who are struggling
“Little patience, yeah, yeah; Need a little patience, yeah; Just a little patience, yeah; Some more patience.” Guns N’ Roses, “Patience” (1989)
IT IS frustrating to see your best players, the guys who cost the most at draft time, struggle. They are your cornerstones. They’re supposed to carry your squad to fantasy glory.
You don’t expect perfection, but you don’t expect extensive slumps either. But, it happens.
For instance, Corbin Carroll has barely struck out and ranks seventh in stolen bases, but he hit just .208 with a .582 OPS in his first 112 plate appearances. Aaron Judge, despite his 16.1 percent walk rate, was hitting .186 after 118 plate appearances. Randy Arozarena owned the sixthworst average in the league. George Kirby had a 5.33 ERA after five starts, and Luis Castillo allowed five homers en route to a 4.15 ERA in his first six.
Does it hurt to see those numbers? Of course, but you should also realize just 15 percent of the season has been played. Be patient!
There is so much time to turn it around — and some have already begun to show signs of life (including Kirby and Castillo).
Logan Webb owned a 4.86 ERA and a .319 opponents average in his first three starts, but he was 3-0 with a 0.41 ERA and .184 opponents average in his next three starts.
Julio Rodriguez was hitting .191 with a .456 OPS through 17 games but entered the weekend hitting .276 after going 15-for-35 (.429) in his next six games.
Francisco Lindor raised his average from a horrendous .103 on April 13 to a still very ugly .206 after going 14-for-39 (.359) with three homers, eight RBIs and a 1.046 OPS.
This is why they’re called cold streaks — it’s a (mostly) brief run of bad luck. It may not feel brief, but Roto Rage urges you to not act out of frustration, because that is when mistakes are made.
Nolan Jones, who has been dealing with back stiffness, is off to a truly terrible start. It has been so awful that he was actually the fourth-most dropped outfielder in ESPN leagues.
This is what Roto Rage would consider a mistake.
Yes, he entered Friday with the fourth-worst batting average (.148) in the majors while striking out in 37.5 percent of his atbats, and owning the 11th-lowest slugging percentage and thirdworst on-base percentage. But that doesn’t take away from the fact he had a 55.8 average draft position (the No. 14 outfielder), according to Fantasy Alarm.
It doesn’t erase the fact he fi ished fourth in the Rookie of the Year voting in 2023 after hitting .297 with 20 homers, 62 RBIs, 60 runs, 20 stolen bases and a .931 OPS over 106 games.
It doesn’t change the fact he hit .280 with 72 homers, 304 RBIs and a .869 OPS over seven seasons in the minors.
Jones still hits the ball hard, with his max exit velocity (112 mph) ranking in the top 50. His overall contact rate and contact rate on pitches inside the strike zone are up. His sprint speed is in the 82nd percentile, and he is still walking 8.3 percent of the time. He has been taking more pitches in the zone, being more passive rather than attacking. That can change.
Jones is a great buy-low option (and, no, not because of the Coors Field factor). He is just too talented. He also shouldn’t cost too much — heck, there is a chance he is available in your league with a slew of fantasy managers already jumping ship.
Ditching talented players, especially one who was selected in the first five rounds, for the next one-week wonder is a mistake. When players like Jones struggle, even for an extended period of time, let them ride the pine. Don’t kick them to the curb!
Be patient!