Expect Jets to soar to top of AFC East
As we look ahead to the 2024 NFL season, the AFC East is a division full of intrigue.
Let’s take a look at each team’s DraftKings odds to win the division and Super Bowl, and make a best bet.
Buffalo Bills (+160, 12/1)
The Bills moved on from Stefon Diggs, but their succession plan is murky at best. Buffalo drafted Keon Coleman in the second round, and it sounds as if they’re relying on him as their starting X right away. Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid are young players with upside, but this pass-catching corps leaves much to be desired.
Buffalo’s defense also lost cornerback Tre’Davious White and safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde, leaving the secondary in a shaky position. Secondround pick Cole Bishop will be asked to step into a starting role immediately.
Josh Allen remains one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, but the Bills had to take their lumps this offseason with multiple salary-cap casualties. That leaves them in a precarious position entering next season, and I’m looking to fade them as the current favorites in this division.
New York Jets (+200, 20/1)
Aaron Rodgers, who will be ready to go at the start of training camp, should provide a massive upgrade for a team that hasn’t had quality quarterback play in years.
Rodgers should have better protection with the additions of tackles Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses. Both veterans have missed time in recent seasons, but the Jets added tackle Olu Fashanu in the first round, and he should be ready to start immediately.
The Jets defense should remain elite after ranking third in EPA/ play last season and fifth in special teams. The addition of Haason Reddick could also pay dividends for an already outstanding pass rush.
Rodgers turns 41 in December, but an MVP bet at 28/1 is undeniably enticing. I’m also intrigued by the Jets at 27/1 at FanDuel to win the Super
Bowl.
Miami Dolphins (+200, 22/1)
Eight of Bills’ 14 players who played over 500 defensive snaps last season are gone. The defense should be expected to take a hit with DC Vic Fangio gone to the Eagles.
The offense returns elite pieces, including Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. It should remain among the league’s best after ranking fourth in EPA/play last season, and Mike McDaniel remains one of the best play-callers in the sport. However, OL starters Robert Hunt and Connor Williams were lost in free agency.
The Dolphins have experienced struggles when punching up in competition and taking a hit on defense won’t help matters. The offense will put up big numbers in the fall, but as the weather gets colder, Miami must prove it can hold up against the elite teams it will face.
New England Patriots (25/1, 150/1)
The Patriots are entering a new era with first-year head coach Jerod Mayo and Drake Maye, the team’s No. 3 overall pick in the draft. However, the quarterback’s first season will be difficult with arguably the worst combination of offensive line and receiver play in the league.
New England ranked eighth in defensive EPA last season, and was stout against the run, ranking second in rushing success rate allowed. However, it’s fair to wonder whether the defense will take a hit with Bill Belichick gone.
The Patriots are also saddled with the second-most difficult schedule. With a win total of 4.5, New England isn’t a serious threat to make the playoffs, much less win this division.
AFC East best bet
A step back for both the Bills and Dolphins should be expected, with both losing key starters in free agency. Buffalo’s transitioning wide receiver room and secondary are concerning, while Miami’s defense could decline after losing multiple starters and coordinator Fangio.
The Jets are the best team in this division, and I love getting 2-to-1 odds or better on them to win the AFC East. They also have the recipe for a potential Super Bowl contender.