Count on Pacers to take two vs. Celts
The Pacers crashed the NBA’s postseason party by winning Game 7 on the road at Madison Square Garden, setting up an Eastern Conference Finals matchup with the Celtics.
Indiana couldn’t miss in the elimination game, establishing a new playoff record by shooting 67.1 percent from the floor in the 130-109 victory.
The Pacers’ offense has been a strong suit all season with the second-highest efficiency in NBA history at 121 points per 100 possessions.
Unfortunately for the Pacers, their performance was outdone by the Celtics, who posted the highest offensive rating with a 123.2 value. Boston’s 11.6 net rating is also tied for the third-best mark in history.
It’s worth noting that eight of the 12 teams that have finished the regular season with a double-digit net rating have gone on to win the NBA title. Thus, it’s no surprise that the Celtics are prohibitive favorites in their series against the Pacers, with odds as high as -900 at BetMGM and a series game spread of -2.5 at -150.
With bettors having to pay a premium to back Boston in this series, this preview will explore whether we can find any value with the underdog Pacers.
Porzingis to miss start of conference finals
Boston lost center Kristaps Porzingis to a calf injury in Game 4 of its firstround series against the Heat. While Porzingis continues to make progress, ESPN reported that the Latvian is likely to miss the first two games of the series.
The Celtics are a deep enough team to be able to overcome the Porzingis injury in the first two rounds. You could also argue that they caught a bit of a break facing two teams battling injuries to key players.
Miami was without Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier for the entire series. Then, in the second round, the Cavaliers played without as many as three starters toward the end of the series. Cleveland center Jarrett Allen (ribs) didn’t play at all, while Donovan Mitchell (calf ) missed Games 4 and 5.
The Pacers likely will be Boston’s healthiest opponent in this playoff run, so it’ll be critical for them to try to steal a game with Porzingis still sidelined.
Long-distance shooting key in the series
While Boston won the season series (3-2) against Indiana, four of the five games were ultimately decided from the perimeter, with large discrepancies in 3-point shooting percentages. The lone exception was a 133-131 Pacers victory on Jan. 8 when both teams shot over 47 percent from deep.
The Celtics were arguably the best 3-point shooting team during the regular season, ranking first in field goals made (16.5), attempts (42.5) and second in percentage (38.8 percent).
Conversely, the Pacers were the best perimeter defensive team, leading the NBA with the fewest opponent 3-pointers (10.7) and attempts (29.3). Thus, this series will ultimately be about which team can win the perimeter battle.
The Pacers have been the best perimeter shooting team in the playoffs (38.1 percent). Tyrese Haliburton leading the way with 3.5 made 3s per game. This should give them a puncher’s chance against the Celtics.
As a result, backing Indiana on the series spread of +2.5 (+125 at BetMGM) is a wager that deserves consideration.