The Comeback Kids
IN APRIL, Somalia’s new president Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, who is better known by his nickname Farmajo, tried a new tactic in the fight against the Somali militant group Al-shabab. First, he declared war on the group. Then he offered the militants amnesty, promising to give the fighters education, training and employment if they surrendered within 60 days.
The group didn’t take the president up on his offer. Less than two months later, in late May, AlShabab claimed responsibility for killing at least 11 police officers with three roadside bombs on the Kenyan side of the Somali border. The militants’ message was clear: They were ready for war.
Al-shabab, a group with ties to Al-qaeda, has just overtaken Nigerian jihadis Boko Haram as the deadliest militant group in Africa. Al-shabab—which means “the Youth” in Arabic—was responsible for 4,281 casualties in Africa in 2016, compared with 3,499 by Boko Haram and 2,350 by ISIS, according to data collected by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project and compiled by the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, an institution affiliated with the U.S. Department of Defense. (Historically, Boko Haram remains the most deadly group in Africa: It has killed 11,000 more people than Al-shabab since 2010, according to the same data.)
Al-shabab’s leader, Abu Ubaidah, is one of Washington’s 10 most wanted terrorists and subject to up to a $6 million bounty from the U.S. State Department. The group has been battling the Western-backed government in Somalia for more than a decade, and it has carried out large-scale attacks in neighboring countries, particularly Kenya. The group may be best known for its 2013 siege in a shopping mall in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi, killing 67 people over three days. Two years later, Somali militants attacked a university in Garissa near Kenya’s border with Somalia, killing 148 people.
What is behind the change in supremacy among Africa’s militant Islamist groups? The most obvious answer is a weakening of Boko Haram, which has been fighting an armed insurgency against the Nigerian government since 2009, during which it has killed tens of thousands of people and displaced more than 2 million.
Boko Haram reached its peak in terms of territory in early 2015, when it controlled a Belgiumsized piece of land in Nigeria. But since Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari came into power in May 2015, the group has suffered from a renewed Nigerian military offensive that has reclaimed almost all of the militant group’s territory.
Boko Haram has even been forced to relinquish some of the so-called Chibok girls, who were abducted from their school in April 2014. The girls became the subject of the global hashtag campaign #Bringbackourgirls, which included former first lady Michelle Obama among the participants advocating for their
release. The group released 82 of the girls in May after negotiations with the government, though more than 100 remain in captivity.
While it has come under severe external pressure, Boko Haram has also faced internal divisions. It recently split into two clashing factions, one under Abubakar Shekau, who has led the group since its founder, Mohammed Yusuf, died in 2009, and the other under Abu Musab al-barnawi, a leader ISIS installed in August 2016. Both factions have been able to launch attacks in northeast Nigeria and the Lake Chad area, but the group has turned to increasingly desperate tactics, such as the use of child suicide bombers.
Al-shabab also suffered a loss of power: A 22,000-strong African Union force (AMISOM) has pushed the group out of urban areas and into the countryside. And U.S. drone strikes have taken the lives of senior leaders, including former chief Ahmed Abdi Godane, who formalized the group’s ties with Al-qaeda.
But over the past year, Al-shabab has been able to capitalize on the new government’s inexperience and a loss of momentum by AMISOM troops, who have complained of not being paid and have abandoned bases that have come under attack. The group has ramped up its attacks across Somalia and launched several major raids on AMISOM bases, including an attack last year on the El Adde base that led to the deaths of more than 100 Kenyan soldiers. Militants have also regularly detonated suicide bombs in and around government buildings and hotels, and they have attacked civilian hot spots: Al-shabab gunmen killed 20 people on a popular beach in Mogadishu in January 2016.
Now two of the group’s prime targets look vulnerable: Somalia’s government is preoccupied with preventing famine, and turbulent elections are coming up in Kenya in August. With such opportunities, the Youth’s bloody rebellion looks set to continue, with little chance for surrender.
OVER THE LAST YEAR, AL-SHABAB HAS BEEN ABLE TO CAPITALIZE ON THE NEW GOVERNMENT’S INEXPERIENCE AND A LOSS OF MOMENTUM BY AFRICAN UNION TROOPS.