The Senate

While there are many other toss-up races, conventional wisdom says control of the Senate is down to the following three. Democrats need to win two of these to keep power.

A messy morass in georgia

★ The 411 _ In addition to its role in determining party control, the Georgia Senate race puts on display many of the competing issues of the 2022 midterms, from abortion to celebrity to the power of a Trump endorsement.

★ The Candidates _ Democratic Senator Rafael Warnock, who won his seat in a high-stakes special-election runoff in January 2021 that was pivotal in determining control of the upper chamber of Congress, is running against Trump-backed former University of Georgia football hero Herschel Walker.

★ Expected Outcome _ The highly competitive race is considered a toss-up by major prognosticators, though the Realclearpolitics polling average has Warnock up by just over 3 points.

★ Potential Impact _ The results could say a lot about what voters care about most. Are they put off by salacious scandal or is party loyalty and a Trump endorsement potent enough to overcome melodrama? The Peach State took a surprising left turn in 2020 when it elected Democrats for president and two Senate seats, bucking a decades-long trend as a GOP haven, and many people expected it to course-correct in response to disappointment over Biden. Yet Walker’s ongoing drama— he has four known children with four different women and, despite his anti-abortion stance, reportedly paid for one to terminate a pregnancy— has put that to the test. The Republican was a Trump recruit, so his loss would be viewed as a ding on the ex-president. Says Jim Dornan, a veteran GOP strategist who worked on Trump’s 2015 exploratory campaign committee and this year is advising Republican candidates in Oregon, Maryland and California, “He’s a terrible candidate. But he could still win.”

A Tightening Race in Pennsylvania

★ The 411 _ It’s a battle of personalities as much as a choice between political philosophies in this high-profile contest.

★ The Candidates _ Lt. Governor John Fetterman, a Democrat, is running against ex-tv host Dr. Mehmet Oz, a Trump-endorsed Republican, to replace retiring GOP Senator Pat Toomey.

★ Expected Outcome _ Fetterman’s once commanding lead has been narrowing. Cook Political Report now rates the race a toss-up, while Sabato says it’s merely leaning Democratic.

★ Potential Impact _ Democrats need to flip Pennsylvania to keep Senate control. Fetterman’s stroke kept him off the campaign trail for months, but he’s remained in front of voters via viral memes painting Oz as an elitist, an endorser of scam products and, perhaps worst of all, from New Jersey. But lately Oz has nearly closed the gap by hitting Fetterman as soft on crime with a barrage of ads. Even though Oz came to the race with national fame, it’s the 6’-8” hoodie-and-shorts-wearing Fetterman whose ability to connect with voters could carry the day and provide a playbook for Dems trying to regain the party’s footing with the working class.

Dems on The Ropes in nevada

★ The 411 _ The Democrats’ hyper focus on abortion isn’t doing them much good in Nevada, where access to the procedure is legally protected. That has the Democrat currently in office looking like the party’s most vulnerable Senate member.

★ The Candidates _ Sitting Senator Catherine Cortez Masto, the first and only Latina ever elected to the upper chamber, is running against the GOP’S Adam Laxalt, former state attorney general and son and grandson of senators.

★ Expected Outcome _ Another nail biter: Both Cook and Sabato rate this race as a toss-up.

★ Potential Impact _ Democrats are increasingly pessimistic about Cortez Masto, whose first win in 2016 was guided by then-senator Harry Reid but whose political machine has atrophied since he left office and then died. On her own, Cortez Masto may not be dynamic enough to overcome the ire of Nevadans hard-hit by COVID shutdowns—especially in a state where gas costs $5.30 a gallon. “I think we lose Nevada,” says a top Democratic aide who has worked on several campaigns this year. “Cortez Masto just doesn’t have it in her to pull this through.”