All counties in top group for spread risk
Risk of community spread of COVID is ‘substantial’ in all 67 Pa. counties
There is a substantial risk of community spread of COVID-19 in every county in Pennsylvania, according to a state report released Dec. 21.
The weekly report is part of an online risk assessment tool created by the state Department of Education in August to help local school districts decide if they should hold in-person classes based on the risk of community spread in their county.
Monday’s version showed that all 67 Pennsylvania counties, including Berks, had a substantial risk of community spread for the week ending Friday. It was the second consecutive week every county in the state was in that category.
Community spread means people have been infected with the virus in an area, including some who are not sure how or where they became infected.
Gov. Tom Wolf said the data in Monday’s report shows that the state’s fight to stop the spread of COVID-19 is far from over. And, he said, it justifies new temporary restrictions he put into place recently such as forbidding in-door dining, limiting indoor gatherings to 10 people, closing gyms and entertainment businesses like movie theaters and capping retail businesses at 50% capacity.
“As we approach a number of holidays, we need to put Pennsylvania on pause and continue to follow the time-limited mitigation efforts announced last week,” he said. “We need all Pennsylvanians to follow these measures as part of their collective responsibility to protect one another and the health system.”
The new restrictions went into effect Dec. 12 and will last until 8 a.m. on Jan. 4.
The state’s community spread risk assessment tool uses countylevel COVID-19 data on incidence rates and the percent positivity of diagnostic testing to group counties into one of three categories of risk of community spread: low, moderate or substantial. A county-by-county list of ratings is released each Monday.
The COVID-19 incident rate is how many people out of 100,000 have tested positive for the disease over the past seven days. The percent positivity is the percentage of people tested over a sevenday span that test positive.
The following are the metrics for each of the state’s risk categories:
• Low: An incident rate of less than 10 per 100,000 residents over the past seven days and a sevenday positivity rate less than 5%.
• Moderate: An incident rate of 10 to 100 per 100,000 residents over the past seven days or a seven-day positivity rate between 5% and 10%.
• Substantial: An incident rate of greater than 100 per 100,000 residents over the past seven days or a seven-day positivity rate greater than 10%.
Berks has been in the substantial category since mid-October after beginning the school year in the moderate category.
For each risk category the state provides guidelines on how schools should provide instruction: in-person, virtually or a mix of the two. The recommendation for school districts in counties with substantial community spread risk is to hold classes fully virtually.
School districts are not bound to follow the state’s guidelines and have the ability to choose what mode of instruction they use regardless of the county’s risk category.
Over the last two months, the number of counties deemed to have a substantial risk of community spread of COVID-19 has grown quickly.
When the risk assessment tool was first introduced, just a few weeks before the start of the school year, only one county was in the substantial risk category.
But by the last week of October that number had grown to 26. The following week the number passed the halfway mark, with 38 counties in that category.
The number continued to rise over the following weeks, hitting 59, then 63 counties. The number rose to 66 counties for two weeks before the last holdout, Cameron County, shifted from low to substantial risk for the week ending Dec. 11.
The growing number of counties in the substantial risk category follows statewide COVID-19 data that has surged this fall.
According to the state Department of Health, the statewide seven-day incident rate for the week ending Thursday was 445.8. The statewide seven-day percent positivity was 15.8%.
On Monday the state reported 7,372 new COVID-19 cases, continuing a trend of more than 6,000 new cases each day so far this month. Those numbers far exceed ones from the first wave of the pandemic in the spring, where the highest daily case count was just over 2,000.
In Berks, the statewide sevenday incident rate for the week ending Thursday was 465.1. The statewide seven-day percent positivity was 17.6%.
The state on Monday reported 274 new cases in Berks. Like recent state numbers, Berks’ new case totals each day this month have exceeded the high of 220 from the spring wave. The county hit a pandemic high of 449 on Dec. 2.