Hurricane Florence on East Coast track

Hurricane Florence tracked toward the East Coast on Sunday with invariability rarely seen in storms several days away from landfall.

While forecasters were careful to cite “high uncertainty” and “low model confidence” last week, their tone changed after watching the storm’s path barely shift from what they had considered to be the worst-case scenario.

Florence crossed the 74 mph threshold from tropical storm to hurricane Sunday morning, and by evening its winds were up to 85 mph. The National Hurricane Center warned that the storm was expected to become a major hurricane by today and remain that way for days.

As of Sunday evening, Florence was centered about 720 miles southeast of Bermuda, moving west at 7 mph. Drawing energy from the warm water, it could be a Category 4 hurricane with winds of 130 mph or more by Tuesday, the Miami-based center said.

Forecasters said it is too early to know the exact path the storm will take but warned that it could roll ashore in the Carolinas by Thursday.

Forecasters urged residents from South Carolina to the mid-Atlantic to get ready — and not just for a possible direct blow against the coast.

With each passing flight into the eye of the storm and every new forecast from the global weather models, it looks increasingly unlikely that Florence will turn out to sea and spare the Eastern Seaboard from potentially devastating storm surge, flooding and winds. There’s even some indication the hurricane will slow or stall out over the Mid-Atlantic later this week, which could lead to a disastrous amount of rain.

“There is an increasing risk of two life-threatening impacts from Florence: storm surge at the coast and freshwater flooding from a prolonged heavy rainfall event inland,” the National Hurricane Center wrote Sunday. Storm surge is the rise in ocean water above normally dry land at the coast, which can inundate homes, roads and businesses.

Across the Southeast, people were urged to put together emergency supply kits, prepare their homes and research evacuation routes. The governors of North and South Carolina and Virginia declared states of emergency far ahead of the storm to get ready.

“Pretend, assume, presume that a major hurricane is going to hit right smack dab in the middle of South Carolina and is going to go way inshore,” South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster said. The state’s emergency management agency said it is “preparing for the possibility of a large-scale disaster.”

Florence’s effects were already being felt along the coast, with dangerous swells and rip currents in some spots. On North Carolina’s Outer Banks, the town of Nags Head posted no-swimming flags on beaches.

In southeast Virginia, Naval Station Norfolk told its employees they should not leave their vehicles parked at the sprawling base in the coming days because of the flood threat. The station, the largest naval complex in the world, said in a Facebook post that much of the base is prone to heavy flooding, especially the parking lots adjacent to the waterfront.

The Navy planned to send ships from the Hampton Roads area of Virginia out to sea. Florida-based Carnival Cruise Line rerouted its cruise ships.

The environment ahead of the storm favors at least a Category 3 hurricane landfall on the Southeast coast by week’s end. The storm will pass over warmer-than-normal ocean water, which will provide fuel. And there will be little wind shear to disrupt the thunderstorm development at its core.

Residents along the Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina coasts are advised to continue preparations for a major hurricane landfall and have plans should they be required to evacuate.

Of particular concern is the rainfall potential in the Mid-Atlantic. Models have come into agreement that a northward turn before reaching the United States is unlikely and that a building high-pressure zone north of the storm will cause it to slow or stall once it reaches the coast or shortly thereafter.

Florence could sit over part of the Mid-Atlantic for several days, similar to what Harvey did last year over eastern Texas. It has the potential to dump large amounts of rain over a large area in the Mid-Atlantic and perhaps into the Northeast.

If a major hurricane, a Category 3 or higher, did make landfall along the Southeast coast, it would be a rarity. Since 1851, only 10 major hurricanes have done so, and the most recent was Fran in 1996, 22 years ago. Hugo in 1989, a Category 4 at landfall, was the one before that. No hurricane has made landfall as a Category 5 in the region since records have been kept.