Let the game play out

There are many notes, thoughts and perhaps even lessons to be gleaned from the early votes. Let me suggest three:

1. Nobody really knows what the dynamic of the Democratic presidential race is yet. Or how it is going to reveal itself.

Democracy is messy. And this is not a bad thing. Public policy is complicated and human beings, be they citizens or leaders, are complicated. Moreover, it is just possible that Democratic voters are being deliberate at this moment.

The polling, so far, has been notably off—erratic, contradictory and, even when curated or averaged, wrong. This was true also in 2016.

This is not because the polling has been careless. Polling methodologies, if anything, have become more and more refined. It is because large sections of the public have decided not to disclose all that they think and feel to pollsters. And that is a good thing also.

How about a national discussion of pollsters volunteering to stop polling a week before election days, or at least 48 hours before?

The elites have embarrassed themselves again as well. They told us Joe Biden would be a strong nominee and that he was the most electable candidate. Voters have thus far disagreed with the first premise and disproved the second. The elites are now telling us that Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar would be better able to stand up to Donald Trump in battle and in direct confrontation than Bernie Sanders. Does that seem true?

2. The voters are still in the mode of expanding choice rather than constricting it.

This, too, is good, not bad. Who said that the field should be winnowed to two or three people after New Hampshire?

Some in the punditocracy call the Democratic race “chaos.” Nonsense.

Besides, the contest has been anything but vicious so far. The worst thing anyone has said is that maybe a woman would have a tougher race than a man and that maybe a socialist would have a tougher race than a capitalist. Neither of which is a cruel or devastating observation. The truth is that it depends upon the woman, and the socialist.

Democrats will be united in their campaign against the president. And the truth is that they agree about almost everything and disagree only in degrees, to an almost scary extent.

3. However, Democratic primary voters will not be choosing a presidential nominee based on party or ideological purity. Yes, there is broad and deep agreement on the big issues. But if a candidate is more gradualist than radical, that’s perfectly acceptable. Hence the rise of Mayor Pete and Senator Amy.

So purity is not going to be the test. I believe Democratic voters are looking for two things this year: First, character. By character, I mean integrity, courage and clarity of mind. And, second, an ability to take it to Trump on issues like trade and economic opportunity for people in the heartland.

The system, and the voters, have only just begun to test for those qualities. We are not in the fourth quarter of the game. We are about to start the third play of the first quarter. Let’s have a little faith and confidence and let the game play out.