Effectively, a red line

President Joe Biden’s two-hour video call last week with Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to the administration’s readout and comments from national security adviser Jake Sullivan, leaves no wiggle room in the event that Russia further invades Ukraine. In emphasizing the Biden administration’s consultation with allies and preplanning — distinct from the lack of preparation for when Russia first invaded Ukraine in 2014 — Biden has effectively drawn a red line. This marks the first serious challenge to our illiberal foe in more than five years.

Sullivan also made an unsubtle threat on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline (which has not yet begun operation): “If Vladimir Putin wants to see gas flow through that pipeline, he may not want to take the risk of invading Ukraine.” As a further signal of our support for the Baltic states, Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently traveled to Latvia, as well as Sweden.

“What matters most is what happens next — whether this will be more like red-line moment on Syria in 2013 or a red-line moment with Iraq’s Saddam Hussein in 1991 is key,” Brian Katulis, vice president for policy at the Middle East Institute, tells me. “But the ball’s now in Putin’s court, and his actions in reaction to this diplomatic engagement will elucidate and point to what’s next.”

In contrast to Biden’s predecessor, Katulis observes, “I’m reassured America has a national security team that appears to weigh carefully all of the options and deliberates, unlike the 20172020 period.” He warns, however, “I do think there’s some cause for concern that we’ve found ourselves in this position, and some worry that we might be back in the ‘paralysis of analysis’ that hampered America’s overall strategy in the world on several fronts from 2012 to 2016.” Biden’s ability to organize European support for debilitating sanctions belies the notion that his withdrawal of U.S forces from Afghanistan diminished our standing and influence with allies.

Use of U.S. military force against Russia is almost certainly not in the cards, but former U.S. ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul urged the administration to explain “more clearly … what they are prepared to do to help Ukrainians defend themselves.” Hopefully, Biden did that privately in his call.

Biden cannot prevent Putin from invading, but he can make clear what the consequences will be if Putin does so and then act to implement those consequences.

Biden will now be tested to make good on his message to Putin. Effectively, that is “you might have run roughshod over the last two guys, but you won’t with me.” Putin will need to weigh carefully whether extending his invasion is worth the risk of becoming a pariah state.