Time to plan for next twist

Another inflection point of bedeviling uncertainty is upon us. Thankfully, the omicron wave of the pandemic appears to be easing. Just like last year, the spring beckons as a time of promise — fewer restrictions, less sickness and diminishing anxiety. But let’s not forget how we were caught by surprise when the virus returned.

Hope is not a strategy. It is time to plan and prepare.

The most urgent questions are about vaccines, which are highly protective against serious illness and death. But the United States is under-vaccinated and under-boosted.

A study published Feb. 11 by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention also suggests that the efficacy of a booster dose begins to wane by the fourth month. During omicron, two months after the booster, the study found, efficacy was 87% against visits to the emergency department or urgent care clinic and 91% against hospitalizations. It declined to 66% and 78%, respectively, after four months.

The study raises a disturbing and still unanswered question: What now? Does it make sense to prepare a second booster when the uptake of the first was only about half the eligible U.S. population?

One pathway out of this endless loop is to redouble efforts to discover and manufacture a universal coronavirus vaccine that would protect against all variants. The current mRNA vaccines are the equivalent of software version 1.0. Maybe version 2.0 will be more durable and protective. Researchers are hard at work on the problem, but it is far from simple.

Meanwhile, the spring lull is a good moment to improve other tools. Why can’t the highly protective N95 masks, designed for occupational settings, be reengineered and manufactured for better fit and comfort for children and others? Also, the vaccine gap for children under 5 years old must be closed. The Food and Drug Administration was correct in its decision last week to wait for more data on a possible third shot for these children, but that does not ease the anxiety for parents. Resolving the uncertainty surrounding pediatric vaccines ought to be a high and continuing priority.

It is unclear whether — at last — we have reached the turning point for which we have longed. But at a minimum, this respite should be a time to rebuild and bolster our defenses.